Sunday, June 22, 2014



  1. Draghi has stated 140 is the pain level for the Euro$ as the rulers of the Euro$ experiment Germany is effected by far the most from a strong Euro$ a negative for their manufacturing sector growth.

    145 is the top resistance level off the Nov 2009 high at 151+ across the Mar 2011 high at 149+

    The Euro$ currently sits at a key support zone off its July 2012 lows 120+ across its July 2013 lows at 127+ bringing the July 2014 support in at 135+ (another July low in the works?) ECB meeting July 3rd

    US$ Index currently is fighting overhead resistance at 80.70 the trendline in place off the April 2011 low of 72.70

    US$ Index has not produced a "Weekly Close" below 79.00 for almost 2 years

    The US$ Index has been making higher highs since Nov 2010 from 81.44-83.54-84.10-84.96 and if the US$ is looking to continue this trend 86.50 is not out of the question with the obvious weekly close below 79.00 suggesting the opposite heading towards 76

    Your bang on Gary looking for July to highlight the next trend for the Euro$-US$

    Gold's test this week is another Weekly Close above $1300 and attempting to take out $1355 with a close.

    Silver would really add some sizzle with a Weekly Close above $22.00 something it has not been able to do since Oct 2013...........jj

    1. If one uses the daily chart yes, but true trends are measured within the Weekly charts.

      Depending on the timeline chart one looks at, the Weekly chart going back 3 years 8 months clearly shows the upper trendline is producing higher highs 81.44....83.54.....84.10....84.96

      Just as Gold is producing Lower Highs in the same time period $1923....$1804....$1487....$1434....$1396

      This MUST change if Gold is going to leave the channel trade area its been stuck in since April 2013.......jj

    2. Since the dollar is just measured against other currencies I don't think it's critical what the dollar index does in regards to gold.

      Stocks have been rising despite a rising dollar index since 2011.

      There is massive inflation no matter what the currency crosses are doing as all CB's are printing, printing. printing.

      They only question is when will the inflation stop or slow down going into the stock market and find something else to land on? The break of the three year trend line in the CRB early this year says the inflation is already starting to find it's way into commodities. This will just continue and intensify if the gains continue to be bigger than stock gains as momentum chasers will start to direct more and more liquidity towards out performing commodities.

    3. Yes indeed a lot of global capital has been pouring into the US equity markets giving strength or at least support to the US$

      That was a clear breakout for the CRB index, late Jan, since being held back at resistance since the 2011 highs as Silver has been. Next resistance area for the CRB 325....350....370.........jj

  2. Gary, read this from another cycles traders commentary this am:

    With the 40 point break out declared in a clear and convincing way, gold not only confirmed a new daily cycle, but a new intermediate cycle as well.

    This is exactly what you called 2 weeks ago!... regardless of the timing being slow its whats needed more and more NEW buyers to the pm's sector on confirmation of a breakout trend in play, not just short covering.

    Now, lets not "close" below $1300 and leave $1355 behind this week!........jj

  3. I'm thinking gold probably consolidates the first part of the week then another push higher during the second half of the week.

    1. Agree, lots of layers of support underneath...300dma $1312...$1300...100mda $1298....200dma $1289 and $1285 50dma

      Silver sizzler has $20.50 and $20.00 support a "close" below $19.45...not positive

      A Gold "close" below $1285 would not be positive.....not looking for that outcome.

      Lets just chew at these levels and regain some momentum with a strong Weekly close for gold, silver and the miner index's- above last weeks close.....jj

  4. Gary, Norcini adds to your comment made at KER regarding a long position in the soft commodities....also highlights what all we chart junkies see as a very Big resistance level for the HUI at 250

    For those that like to knock Norcini its really comparing apples to coal, Gary is a paid service for Buy and Sell recommendations Dan never suggests buying or selling he leaves his commentary and data opinion up to the individual investor as to how they apply it to their investments......jj

  5. On the chance that we actually have seen an early and left translated top in the US Dollar index on just week 4, how many weeks, potentially, until the buck completes the intermediate cycle low?

    I guess this should be bullish for gold but judging by the way things have been going, it should be very bearish for the stock market, right?

  6. Probably about another 16-21 weeks before the final bottom. And yes if the dollar breaks down badly i would expect that to be good for gold and commodities and bad for stocks.

  7. Thanks Gary for the affirmation. So many people have had their head handed to them trying to short the SPY that emotionally one starts to think SPY will never fall from the sky. Perhaps this development with the US Dollar Index will be the catalyst that finally brings the house of cards to fall.

    Are there any key price levels for the US Dollar Index that, if breached, will literally tell the big SPY traders to not walk but RUN for the doors? Thanks.

    1. A break below the May 8th low would indicate another failed intermediate cycle in progress and probably the start of the final move into the three year cycle low.

      That may or may not bring down stocks. It's my opinion after watching the nature of the corrections over the last 2 years that the Fed is intervening in the stock market. They are determined not to have another 2010 & 2011 as they progress through the taper. Of course there is the matter of Belgium buy huge amount's of bonds so it's certainly debatable that they are even really tapering.


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