Hello Toby, what would be the implications for gold? It's almost flat today, do you think your assumption it won't go below 1200 to retest the december and june 2013 lows, or is it too early to say? Anyway, thanks in advance, I really love your work!
Gold is due for a daily cycle low any day now. I'm just waiting for it to form a swing low. If the down trend can continue into Thursday evening one could probably buy heavily at that point as the cycle low would have very high odds of occurring sometime Friday after the employment report.
Your daily cycle theory..is this basically making the assumption that any asset never goes down or up more than x number of days? It sounds to me like that number x is somewhere between 30 and 40..so there is a fair bit of variability. The employment report will likely be the catalyst one way or another..given where the slow stochastics are one would think it should resolve upwards but who knows.
Cycles determine a timing band for a low, not a top. Tops can occur either early or late in a cycle. The timing band for the stock market to make a daily cycle low is about 35-40 days. However the constant intervention in the stock market to keep it propped up while the Fed tapers is threatening to break the normal corrective rhythm of the market and initiate a runaway type move.
I too believe in cycles, not as exact science, but as indicators (or timing bands as you call it). Do you have some must-read litterature about cycles?
Hello Toby,
ReplyDeletewhat would be the implications for gold? It's almost flat today, do you think your assumption it won't go below 1200 to retest the december and june 2013 lows, or is it too early to say?
Anyway, thanks in advance, I really love your work!
Gold is due for a daily cycle low any day now. I'm just waiting for it to form a swing low. If the down trend can continue into Thursday evening one could probably buy heavily at that point as the cycle low would have very high odds of occurring sometime Friday after the employment report.
ReplyDeleteAllright, thanks for the heads up, will keep an eye on the price and might buy some physical on thursday. Best regards
DeleteYour daily cycle theory..is this basically making the assumption that any asset never goes down or up more than x number of days? It sounds to me like that number x is somewhere between 30 and 40..so there is a fair bit of variability.
ReplyDeleteThe employment report will likely be the catalyst one way or another..given where the slow stochastics are one would think it should resolve upwards but who knows.
Cycles determine a timing band for a low, not a top. Tops can occur either early or late in a cycle. The timing band for the stock market to make a daily cycle low is about 35-40 days. However the constant intervention in the stock market to keep it propped up while the Fed tapers is threatening to break the normal corrective rhythm of the market and initiate a runaway type move.
ReplyDeleteI too believe in cycles, not as exact science, but as indicators (or timing bands as you call it). Do you have some must-read litterature about cycles?
DeleteTry googling Walter Bressert
ReplyDelete