Great Call Gary!!!.........all aboard!!..........jj
I believed you Gary - just lacked the ballsy... and also couldn't believe how quickly things ran up, especially with the miners...
Not even considering it was a heck of a short squeeze ?bogi
bogi, lower highs in gold these last 2 years is proof that every up swing has been nothing but short covering, what gold needs is the shorts to cover and become long side traders. Regardless of short covering only or not last Aug run and the start of 2014 run produced some great % gains for us longs and the retracement off both those highs were great short positions producing excellent % gains.....jj
jj - I'm guessing you have seen enough to cover your short positions on gold?
Goldie, yes I covered all my short positions which I started at $1355. When gold has a weekly close above $1307 I'll buy the dips rather than look to short again. Gold is still not in a bull market as it needs to make higher highs as well as higher lows, but it starts from somewhere, lets see.....jj
You are waiting for a lagging confirmation that the bull is back. When viewed in cycle terms we already have most of the confirmation needed to confirm the bull is back. We now have two higher intermediate lows. There is no longer any need to wait for a higher high. It's still very early in this intermediate cycle. You can still buy full positions and place your stop right below $1240. Waiting only means your stop gets further and further away.Of course you could also just wait for the next daily cycle low like I diagrammed in the chart. That's the point where one can enter and then place your stop very close, limiting risk.
I'll disagree with you Gary, just pop up a 18 month chart of Gold, $1180 is the double bottom but one can see we are continuing to trade within a range, last Oct saw a $1251 low then a $1361 top (all the gold gurus suggested the bottom was in, again!) then another test of $1180 before another run at $1400 stalling out at $1392, again gold gurus bottom is in $1525 here we come yet $1400 could not be taken out. So THE bottom is in (hopefully) but imo gold must overcome its fears, take out $1392....$1423....$1434 and $1487 the lower highs in place since the big dive from $1550-$1321I add to my positions long or short when resistance and support are taken out with closes....I let Mr Market tell me I'm right, not opinions, if you followed opinions you would not have suggested exiting your long positions on March 17th, (Doc and Rick were still bullish) instead it was the market action that had you exit......jj
Gary, you are one of only three analysts I follow who called the bottom correctly. Congratulations!Most like Dan Norcini were extremely bearish at the bottom! Pathetic.
mike if your looking for trading advice from Norcini, your at the wrong web-site.....duh!!
I hate to spoil your party about Gary is the only one who called the bottom - Larry Edelman from WEISS Research did it before you ....a bit early maybe - back in April and May .bogi
In April was too early. Calling a bottom in April or May means one had to weather that scary breakdown from the coil and i suspect most sold for a loss at that point. In the middle of may i was telling everyone to wait till the end of May or early June and look for a swing low before buying. That's how we nailed almost the exact bottom.
Gary as your well aware GDXJ has been the leader of the pack within the pm's sector....its first test of resistance is in play today as its hitting the upper trend line off the 2013 Aug highs across the March 2014 highs, that's a resistance that needs to fall confirming an new uptrend vs the trend in play since last July-Aug.What we chart technicians do chuckle over is whenever gold moves off a low (latest being $1240) how its to da moon! even with a $55 uptic and whenever lows are approached its all about sub $1000 in reality we trade $1180-$1380 until proven otherwise.If GDXJ cracks current resistance its very bullish, if it doesn't, we continue to trade within the channels, ugh!!.........jj
A First!! for Silver on the weekly chart, if silver closes out the week above $19.65 then the first time in 3+ years the resistance trend line off the highs has broken!!...that resistance has been tested several times these past 38 months but always turned back setting up another down trend, that $19.65 area now becomes a very key level, fingers crossed Fri takes out $20.51 the 200dma on the daily chart, Hi Ho Silver?.....jj
Wow! Silver in one day took out the 100dma the resistance off the Aug 2013-Feb 2014 trendline AND the 200dma @ $20.49 with its close of $20.65Silver's Weekly chart if it closes above $20.50 will take out the weekly resistance off the Aug 2013 highs AND close well above the resistance trend line in place for 3 years! off the highs in 2011Gary I can't find a reply you gave me shortly after Silver backed off from its 2011 highs, you stated you didn't expect the bull market in silver to return for 3 years!....well this Fri close on the weekly will be the first breakout in 3 years.....fingers crossed.......jj
Gary, Do you think miners will correct big next week below today's price as next week is gold options expiration week or it can do reverse and still go up?
The next daily cycle low is due in the first or second week of July as I diagrammed on the chart.
are you saying hold tight? much more gain coming in few days!!! I finally am recovering my big losses so hard to keep patience. appreciate your advise on this.
Its VERY RARE for gold to produce an uptic greater than 2% in one day, I can count on one hand the amount of times gold has produce larger than 2% gains in a day of trading these past 14 years!!.......jj
I will keep faith that low is in first or second week of July. So, I will hold tight on my July options for one more week. Crossing my fingers!!!
Gary, just a heads up, Argentina has stated it can't make the next bond payment, another reason why Golds having a Big day:....who is next and Japan is a box of nitro!http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/19/sovereign-debt-crisis-beginning/This could well be the true tip of the iceberg regarding Sovereign Debt Crisis....massive amounts of global capital will be looking for safe haven investments reducing cash exposure held in banks and the bond markets.How about a 25-30,000 Dow along with a much higher US$ and Gold....rising together!....you herd it here first, lol.....jj
People don't flee into stocks in time of crisis, especially not after a 5 year bull market that is stretched 35% above its 200 week moving average. They will flee into the commodity sector that is just now emerging from a 3 year bear market though.
Gary, Norcini agrees with your reply to my post, Yellen opened the Commodity Inflation door wide open...have a look at a $GNX chart, breakout baby!!....confirms your call for much, much higher commodity inflation which eventually brings in Rick A's deflation from much higher inflation until its collapses the global economies....jjhttp://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/06/welcome-to-new-fomc-chair-on-job.html
No people don't flee into stocks in a normal market BUT the Feds will continue to buy US equities as the hedge funds buy commodities in the back ground...the Feds will blame their failed actions on leveraged hedge funds and speculators for the run up in commodity prices which eventually will bring down their S&P 500....jj
The gold spike explodes as it hits 1300. That suggests that buy stops were likely triggered in a classic short squeeze.
You think this spike up in gold and silver is merely a short squeeze ken rather than any change from bear to bull?
Unless gold tanks on Fri which I doubt, this weekend will be very entertaining reading and listening to audios at the goldbugger sites...To Da Moon! will be the call.Happens every time gold swings off its recent lows be it from April of 2013 from $132-$1487 June 2013 from $1179-$1434 and Dec from $1181 - $1392...notice the pattern, lower highs.The first real test in this run will be taking out the lowest high which was March 17th @ $1392 and technically until gold closes on the weekly chart above $1487 we bulls and bears are trading the huge channel in place this past 14 months....regardless lots of % gains to be made while Mr Market determines golds trend.....jj
jj - you have a very good understanding of market technicals and I enjoy reading your thoughts. I guess I kinda wonder how well these understandings serve you as a trader? For example, that gold is in some kind of a channel - trading within a particular range - is easy enough to see with the drawing of a few lines. And I agree with your assessment of where the lines are drawn, where the channel exists, where the overhead layer of resistance is, and so on. I wish to only politely ask if you are able to use these understandings to trade with an advantage (ie - are you outperforming the market?). Thanks for your sharing and I do wish your success, please be sure of that.
I've never focused on what my % gains are vs the market, which market?I trade Gold, Silver and their miners. Gary recently made a great call as gold created a top March 17th not based on his cycles but the chart action, I did as well with my holdings selling my longs bought from early Jan and then buying short positions in gold, silver and the miners from $1355 gold.Although many a gold guru were calling for $1400min to $1425 gold into March when all the indicators turned down opinions are worthless so at a min selling long positions was the correct trade and for those who trade aggressively putting on short positions.Gary nailed the bottom based on his cycle work not any action at the time based on the chart, I was slower to react because I waited for chart confirmation.I'll get really bullish in opinion (worthless lol) if - when gold starts to make higher highs out of its bottom zone as it did make the first bullish positive by turning higher off $1240 and not from sub $1200 as it did in July and Dec, that's positive But now it must make a higher high at a min a "close" above $1331 the April 14th high then $1343 and so on.Until then we trade the channel either side of $1200 and sub $1400 as that's not so much my approach but what Mr. Market has given us traders to trade within.Will be interesting to watch the last 1/2 hour of trading in the pm's today be it a Weekly close, do those that can move the charts want to buy into the close holding longs positions over the weekend or close out and take some gains?That's my 2cents to your question Goldie...Gold luck to you as well.....jj
Thanks jj. Appreciate the thoughts you took the time to share. I guess what I was hoping to learn was how one who considers these channel lines or the upper and lower horizontal areas of support and resistance uses that information to trade profitably - with an edge towards profiting, of course. :-) It's really a bit of a mystery to me but I will continue to read and hope eventually something brings me clarity - truth that is actionable, in other words. Anyway, thanks again for sharing your thoughts!
Goldie, go to stockcharts.com and at the home page right side under Commentary you'll see Public Chartlists-our members, a lot of excellent chart work of all kinds of sectors, you'll get the feel for the trend lines and channels that they create.....jj
Goldie and anyone else who doesn't subscribe to Gary's subscription service for .83 Fcking cents a day!! get on it, hell just in the last 4 months how much would you have made % gains wise selling your pm's holdings March 17th and buying it all back in early June.Its a friggen steal!!........jj
jj.....I love your enthusiasm and absolutely agree with your assessment of Gary's service. Thank you.
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