Its a given that gold makes a new low. There is no way it stops near here and goes up. Time to modify your charts again..its going to 1050-1150 which was your forecast back in november and again back in march/april. But then you changed your mind. Once it broke 1280 its clear we will have panic selling now and new lows..
It's probably too late in the daily cycle to make it to sub 1200 now. It would take an extreme manipulation event to get there and I just don't think the physical market can support that now.
Its not rocket science. We had a range of 1280-1320 for weeks..its been broken..its the weakest timeof the year for gold andits manipulated. There are still too many gold bugs also who keep on telling everyone that gold is about to rise expoentially..jim rogers is right..too many mystics on gold. Once 1280 was taken out convincingly it was clear to me that we are heading to new lows. Personally I dont see any value in the daily cycle theory. Why you think that a low is coming in the next week is beyond me..it could just as easily come in 3 or 6 weeks.
I tend to agree with complicated Gary - you nailed where gold and silver was going a few months back but now you seem to have changed your mind.
Changing your mind is good - very good - as too many people often get licked into groupthink but I am surprised that you think the PMs will bounce here. I personally can't see it but, hey, time will tell.
I am no expert - far from it - but I can see 1100 taken out this summer. The only thing that I can see stopping this is some kind of Russian military action in the Ukraine or something kicking off in the South China Sea.
Grateful for your charts and your talks on the kereport - you know far more about all of this stuff than I do.
This is what I always hear at bottoms. Investors emotions take control and recency bias causes them to assume the trend will continue forever.
This is why I don't use technicals to spot major turns. At major tops and bottoms the charts will always be saying that price will continue in the same direction. Cycles and sentiment are much better tools for spotting turns.
Gold now on day 23 of it's daily cycle and sporting momentum divergences on it's 4 hour charts. We are getting close. Maybe another day or two then be prepared for the reversal.
"Cycles and sentiment are much better tools for spotting turns."
Has there ever before been the FED manipulation of markets that we have seen in the last 5 years? Will 'cycles and sentiment' be strong enough to overcome the FED? I hope so.
Those charts look scary - but thanks.
ReplyDeleteGlad I am out of the market for now except for my pension. Wish I could easily put that into cash in the short-term but, alas, I cannot.
I wish your prognosis will turn out correct. This low volume levitation just seems so unreal but they have been pulling this off for months already.
ReplyDeleteFed intervention is the only thing keeping the market propped up. But it can't last forever.
ReplyDeleteIts a given that gold makes a new low. There is no way it stops near here and goes up. Time to modify your charts again..its going to 1050-1150 which was your forecast back in november and again back in march/april. But then you changed your mind. Once it broke 1280 its clear we will have panic selling now and new lows..
ReplyDeleteIt's probably too late in the daily cycle to make it to sub 1200 now. It would take an extreme manipulation event to get there and I just don't think the physical market can support that now.
ReplyDeleteIts not rocket science. We had a range of 1280-1320 for weeks..its been broken..its the weakest timeof the year for gold andits manipulated. There are still too many gold bugs also who keep on telling everyone that gold is about to rise expoentially..jim rogers is right..too many mystics on gold. Once 1280 was taken out convincingly it was clear to me that we are heading to new lows. Personally I dont see any value in the daily cycle theory. Why you think that a low is coming in the next week is beyond me..it could just as easily come in 3 or 6 weeks.
ReplyDeleteI tend to agree with complicated Gary - you nailed where gold and silver was going a few months back but now you seem to have changed your mind.
ReplyDeleteChanging your mind is good - very good - as too many people often get licked into groupthink but I am surprised that you think the PMs will bounce here. I personally can't see it but, hey, time will tell.
I am no expert - far from it - but I can see 1100 taken out this summer. The only thing that I can see stopping this is some kind of Russian military action in the Ukraine or something kicking off in the South China Sea.
Grateful for your charts and your talks on the kereport - you know far more about all of this stuff than I do.
This is what I always hear at bottoms. Investors emotions take control and recency bias causes them to assume the trend will continue forever.
ReplyDeleteThis is why I don't use technicals to spot major turns. At major tops and bottoms the charts will always be saying that price will continue in the same direction. Cycles and sentiment are much better tools for spotting turns.
Gold now on day 23 of it's daily cycle and sporting momentum divergences on it's 4 hour charts. We are getting close. Maybe another day or two then be prepared for the reversal.
"Cycles and sentiment are much better tools for spotting turns."
DeleteHas there ever before been the FED manipulation of markets that we have seen in the last 5 years?
Will 'cycles and sentiment' be strong enough to overcome the FED?
I hope so.