Tuesday, November 23, 2010

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the premium website this morning.

20 comments:

  1. Gary, in war situation or something like now between two Korea's ,what's the logic for Gold to go down? I disagree here.

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  2. Gold is late enough in the intermediate cycle that it could begin the move down into the intermediate cycle low. Presumably it would use the dollar strength as an excuse to begin the move.

    Just be careful with leverage here. If this is the beginning of an intermediate correction then this is how gold traps the dip buyers.

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  3. Thank you!. Really very tricky situation and I will listen to you to be carefull with levarage . I will be convinced if Dolar broke old high at 79.46,other way its still not clear.

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  4. Gary, think we may see the metals rise here, counterintuitvely to dollar. Interesting week! Not selling.

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  5. Dollar is up == gold is up == and silver is down.

    Silver formed a swing high today. Do you think that silver may be leading the precious metals into an correction?

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  6. Most of the time swings are meaningless. I wouldn't read anything into silver. Right now I'm watching the dollar. It's not doing what it's suppoosed to do. Gold can certainly rally along with a rising dollar but I don't think we will see a large parabolic spike higher if the dollar is rising.

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  7. Gary,I exit my huge possitions in Silver and Gold today. I only left half of my core possition in Gold. Maybe Gold has another 30 - 50 pips up,maybe not but considering your advice yesterday it's really too late and too risky to stay with big possition long at the end of intermediate bull rally.
    Thank you for the advice once again!
    Apreciate your work!

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  8. I think this is all a profound example of how gold and silver are outperforming the dollar into these dollar rallies. This silly dollar / euro relationship is such a joke. Neither currency is linked or anchored to anything other than some computers at the NY Fed and the Bank of England along with their beard operations in the club. Gold isn't buying any of this sophomoric nonsense. I think gold rallies or stays very stable and this time it comes from erosion of the Eurozone, a wild experiment of the new world order's faithful puppetmaster followers.

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  9. Toby,

    I would like to get your take on the $GOLD:$USD ratio.

    There appears to be a water fall decline and then consolidation (crawl) along the 50 MA. This crawl is typically a continuation pattern.

    That would suggest a larger sell off gold - just in time for an intermediate decline in gold...?

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  10. I'm not sure why you are trying to divide gold by the dollar. Gold is already priced in dollars.

    On top of that haven't we all learned our lesson many times in the past that past price behavior doesn't guarantee future price behavior. It's the reason most people never make any money by only looking at charts.

    Charts are nothing more than a record of history, and history isn't the future.

    Just stick with cycles, sentiment & the big picture fundamentals and you will make money.

    Get side tracked by charts and you will probably manage to lose money in a bull market.

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  11. Toby

    You say charts will get you into trouble and just follow the cycles? What is to say the cycles wont get you into trouble either. I dont think I have ever seen a good call made by an elliot waver and thats what these cycles are arent they? Maybe I am mistaken. The real use of technical analysis is not as a prediction tool but as a quick reaction one. Where as I guess your cycle theories are based on prediction, also they are based on what has happened in the past, something you say to be wary of.

    Since I have followed your blog you have made some good calls, but I am not convinced with cycles. Please explain what theory backs up the fact the market does a certain thing every 24 days or whatever according to a cycle. Do the big boys say - 'heh lets all buy together to make a cycle every three weeks'

    As a technician I have done quite Ok out of using charts as have lots of others. Granted I am not a fan of chart patterns but there are certain things on charts that definetly are relevant.

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  12. Hey big coach, do you have any comments on the head and shoulder pattern on Gold?
    What to do now, buy, sell, hold or do nothing?

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  13. John,
    Cycles are not EW. EW IMO is completely worthless.

    B,
    We have a very good plan in place to prevent us from riding an intermediate correction. So I suspect most everyone is just following the plan.

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  16. Don't worry. Be happy. Gold is going higher. Way higher. Just be glad you have it. Back in April I got an epiphany that this move would happen and here we are. Up and away we go, soon. Best to buy while it's still affordable. There may come a day when none of us can afford it. I think doubting is the biggest enemy right now. Now is the time to have faith. These uncertain times are exactly why we bought gold... And uncertainty is at peak levels right now. I didn't worry about gold at all today. Granted it's been volatile, but is there anything else out there to own? Nope!

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  17. Days like this are what put us die hard gold bugs in the driver's seat. Today was a "freebee" for us. The metals rallied with the dollar, we're outperforming everything, and we're sittin pretty puttin on weight. Looks like we've got a good 20% upside from here at least. I'm thinking 25% - 30% is more like it. When this dollar rally starts rolling over, it'll be time to "Release the hounds!" Get ready!

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  18. Noah,
    There is an intermediate degree correction coming. We certainly aren't going to get 20-30% before that correction unfolds.

    Right now we are on the 9th day of the current daily cycle. The trough usually comes around day 20-25. Once we get that minor correction in the next week or two then we can expect gold to quickly roll over into an intermediate decline before a final leg up in the spring.

    That's when we will see the next big 30% move.

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  19. Ok Toby thanks have fun at that great beach hopefully you'll see some other great scenery at that beach too! If you do get a chance to snap some pictures at that beach.... Please do me and all of your wonderful followers here the favor of posting those beautiful PG - 13 pictures right here on the site!

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