Friday, November 19, 2010


Last week the market regained the 200 week moving average. I suspect after the brief  2 day move back below that level we will see the market now hold above this major support level.

Yesterday's rally was strong enough to form a swing low and should mark the bottom of the daily cycle. I'm still expecting the new daily cycle to move back to new highs before topping in mid to late December and rolling over into a more substantial intermediate degree correction in January.


  1. Toby,

    Once gold breaks above 1365, that will form a swig low on the daily chart. That should send gold up for one more daily cycle before an intermediate cycle correction.

    My question is doesn't the last daily cycle in the intermediate cycle tend to be shortened and left translated?

  2. The last daily cycle is usually left translated not neccessarily shortened. I think we have two cycles left. One that should be extremely right translated followed by a left translated one into the intermediate bottom.

  3. Toby,

    Theses 2 daily cycles will bring Gold to the potencial value of $1600, right ? One daily cycle till mid+ December and the second one to mid+ jan 2011 ? Then begins the intermediate cycle correction?

  4. I'm expecting one more cycle up. I have no idea where it will end. Although I do epxect it to top above a big round number. I just don't know whether that will be at $1500 or $1600. Then a left translated daily cycle that will take gold down into the intermediate cycle low in Jan.

  5. Following up to what Carlos said, If you are expecting 2 more cycles -- the second being the left translated one -- it is near the end of this current cycle that we are looking to book some profits, correct?

  6. btw, In spite of the strong dollar -- Gold put confirmed the swing low!

    I noticed that the dollar is crawling along the 50ma. Are yo expecting a break to the downside?

  7. All along your theory pounds on the fact the dollar down gold up.
    However, we saw in May 2010 that both Gold & dollar was up together and even now they are up together.
    Just because a commodity is in a bull run, does not make you or any one an authority on that. I don't think you have the required qualification to be a gold coach.
    With debt de-leveraging , dollar will get stronger in 2011 and yet gold will go up, reaching $2500-$3000 in couple of years.
    You have not yet understood the fundamentals, Toby. No coach is needed.


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