Monday, August 23, 2010

WHY THE DOLLAR IS KEY

Stocks:

The move to a lower low on Friday puts the odds squarely in the “one more leg down” camp. I’ve noticed a couple of patterns emerging in the stock market. The first one is the tendency for a market cycle to bottom on an anticipated news event. The last two intermediate cycle lows bottomed on or one day prior to a jobs report.




The second is the tendency for a cycle to bottom only after a fake out earlier in the cycle.




I’ve been expecting a short daily cycle to balance out the extremely long cycle into the May flash crash (62 days trough to trough). But it doesn’t look like we are going to get one. Every cycle has either run late into the timing band or stretched long. So from here on out I won’t be looking for anymore short cycles (which probably guarantees the next one will be).


So if we factor in the fake out principle and news driven bottom theory we are probably looking at the current daily cycle bottoming next week, possibly Friday (day 40) on the GDP revision. Lately the daily cycles have tended to run between 35 and 45 days with 39 or 40 being the norm.


I think we all realize the revision is going to be bad and common sense would suggest the market should go down. However the market is already in the process of discounting a bad number and has been for 10 days now. I suspect this is going to be one of those sell the rumor buy the news type events. And I expect it is going to catch the bears leaning heavily in the wrong direction expecting the market to act rationally and continue down.

When the market starts to rally out of that cycle bottom we could see a pretty aggressive move as shorts panic and have to cover. I actually expect this will quickly drive the market above the 1130 resistance level. Then it will just be a question of when sentiment reaches bullish extremes as to whether the market can test the April highs. If we start to see large negative money flows (a sign institutional traders are exiting) prior to bettering the April high then there is a good chance the cyclical bull is on its last legs.
 Dollar:
I’m going to spend a good bit of time today on the dollar because it is going to be the key to what I envision unfolding the next few months.


I’m going to start off with the largest 3 year cycle and then work backwards.


 
The last four major 3 year cycles have all run 3 to 3 1/2 years in length. The current cycle is 2 years and 6 months old. Now there is a chance the 3 year cycle could bottom this fall as the current intermediate cycle bottoms. However that cycle is due to bottom in November or early December. That would leave the 3 year cycle a bit short. For that reason I expect the current cycle to run at least one more intermediate cycle into the March – June time frame. This is a big reason why I think the C-wave in gold may have two legs up instead of just one.
 
Next let’s back down to the next smaller cycle – the yearly cycle.

 

I’ve marked the last two yearly cycles in blue (notice how they are making lower lows). The last two yearly cycle lows occurred in December. The current intermediate dollar cycle should bottom in late November or early December. That skews the odds heavily in favor of the next intermediate cycle low not only marking an intermediate bottom but also forming a higher degree yearly cycle bottom in the same end of the year time frame as the last two yearly cycles.

After the aggressive collapse we’ve seen in the dollar over the last couple of months there seems to be little question the dollar has begun working its way down into that yearly cycle low. The only question now is how long before the current intermediate cycle (which began on August 8th) tops. I suspect it will be fairly quickly. As a matter of fact I think the current daily cycle will most likely be the last right translated daily cycle imbedded within the current intermediate cycle.

My best guess as to how far the correction drops would be at least 50% of the recent rally. Most daily cycles do tend to give back at least 50%.
 
 
A 50% retracement would take gold slightly below $1200. If you remember I was expecting smart money to push gold below the May pivot as the intermediate cycle bottomed last month. I explained at the time how big players routinely run stops to trigger heavy volume sell offs that allow them to take large positions into a very liquid environment. With the benefit of hindsight we know this is exactly what happened.
 
Now I don’t think gold will be dropping anywhere close to $1155 during this correction, but I do think there are probably plenty of stops to be run below the psychological $1200 level. So I think we can probably look for gold drop below that briefly as smart money again runs the stops in order to panic retail traders into puking up their shares. My suggestion would be for anyone looking to enter or add to positions to do so as gold breaks through $1200.
 
Let me remind everyone that gold is the single strongest trending market on the board today. It is the only asset still in a secular bull market with unimpaired fundamentals. I did my best last month to convince traders and investors to buy the intermediate cycle low. I suspect many were unable to do so. Those intermediate cycle lows are the single best buying opportunities one gets in bull markets and they only come around once every 5-6 months.
 
The approaching smaller daily cycle low will be the next best opportunity to get long or add to positions in the one remaining secular bull market. If you missed the last one in July I suggest you not make the same mistake twice.


Once this daily cycle tops, which I expect it to do next week, or early the week after, there is a very good chance that will also mark the top of this intermediate cycle. As I’ve illustrated on the chart, I then expect every daily cycle after that to be left translated (tops in less than 10 days), and each to move below the prior cycle low (failed cycle) until the dollar puts in the yearly cycle low later this winter.

It’s been my contention for some time that the only way stocks can rally is if the Fed continues to debase the currency. Remember this is an election year so I think we can pretty much bank on the dollar moving down into the yearly cycle low right on schedule, possibly with extreme prejudice as Ben desperately tries to keep asset prices inflated into the elections.


But as I’ve been saying for a long time it simply isn’t possible to print prosperity. I’ll tell you what else is impossible to control - where the liquidity lands.


Ben would love for all that free money to create jobs, but as we know that just ain’t gonna happen. The next best thing would be for all that liquidity to levitate the stock market. And I think it will to some extent, but there are already problems starting to surface with this plan. Not surprisingly they are the same problems that popped up in `08 as Ben tried to stop the real estate bubble and credit markets from collapsing. I’m sure you’ve noticed the problem by now. That’s right, liquidity is leaking out of the stock market and flowing into the commodity markets.





It’s readily apparent in the above chart that stocks are already struggling as more and more liquidity leaks into commodities. The CRB however is having no trouble what-so-ever responding to the Fed’s printing press. It is rising in lock step with the declining dollar. The fact that the fundamentals are impaired in most commodities just goes to show how much liquidity the Fed is actually dumping on the world.
 
I expect this pattern to continue and accelerate as the dollar moves into the yearly cycle low. I have no doubt we will continue to see a weaker and weaker response from the stock market leading to more and more panic printing by the Fed causing commodities prices to rise and rise.


Commodities are already trying to tell Ben to shut down the presses. As this continues they will soon be screaming for the Fed to shut off the money spigot. I really don’t expect Ben to hear though. He was deaf to what his monetary policy caused in `08 ($147 oil and the collapse of the economy) and I expect he will not heed the warning signs this time either. Which, of course, just means he will get the same result as last time. Eventually his monetary policy will spike commodity prices, especially oil and probably food, through the roof which will destroy the economy all over again.

Gold:
I’ve been looking for a swing high to possibly mark the top of the current daily cycle. Gold formed a swing on Friday that I think probably marked a short term top. If gold is now on its way down into the daily cycle low then I tend to think it will probably bottom along with the stock market sometime next week or early the following week.



My best guess as to how far the correction drops would be at least 50% of the recent rally. Most daily cycles do tend to give back at least 50%.


A 50% retracement would take gold slightly below $1200. If you remember I was expecting smart money to push gold below the May pivot as the intermediate cycle bottomed last month. I explained at the time how big players routinely run stops to trigger heavy volume sell offs that allow them to take large positions into a very liquid environment. With the benefit of hindsight we know this is exactly what happened.

Now I don’t think gold will be dropping anywhere close to $1155 during this correction, but I do think there are probably plenty of stops to be run below the psychological $1200 level. So I think we can probably look for gold drop below that briefly as smart money again runs the stops in order to panic retail traders into puking up their shares. My suggestion would be for anyone looking to enter or add to positions to do so as gold breaks through $1200.

Lest I forget let me remind everyone that gold is the single strongest trending market on the board today. It is the only asset still in a secular bull market with unimpaired fundamentals. I did my best last month to convince traders and investors to buy the intermediate cycle low. I suspect many were unable to do so. Those intermediate cycle lows are the single best buying opportunities one gets in bull markets and they only come around once every 5-6 months.

The approaching smaller daily cycle low will be the next best opportunity to get long or add to positions in the one remaining secular bull market. If you missed the last one in July I suggest you not make the same mistake twice.

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8 comments:

  1. Interesting stuff, for sure, but I'm a bit concerned about your analysis of the Dollar Index versus commodity prices.

    A truly international price for commodities is the Dollar Index multiplied by Dollar price of the commodity. This evens out fluctuations in the Dollar for buyers such as China. When the Dollar goes up, the price goes down, so the international price is unaffected by any move that's purely currency.

    Your chart comparisons seem to show overwhelming evidence that the international price of commodities has barely changed for the last year. Because the multiple has stayed roughly constant.

    That's a surprise. But it isn't exactly what you were saying.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Actually a much better way to calculate true commodity price is to divide the commodity by any specific currency. I think you will find almost all commodities have been rising steeply since March 09 in all currencies.

    Even the Yen which has been one of the strongest currencies on the board.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Same anonymous as last time. Let me give myself a brand, AJS.

    Thanks for your response, and yes, I take your point that commodity prices have been rising. I should have taken the time to calculate the multiple and ignored the visual scale of the graphs. And then I would have calculated the big rise you mention, which is obvious in the real world anyway. My error.

    But I'm still maintaining that the Dollar Index and Commodity prices have a natural inverse relationship. When the Dollar Index moves up, the Chinese don't want to pay more merely because the Dollar has moved. They demand that the Dollar price of the commodity should go down. And they're too big to argue with.

    If the relationship is true, then your graph comparison is not proving a liquidity issue. It's simply proving the natural inverse relationship between the two items.

    There may be proof that liquidity is changing commodity prices, but your graph comparison doesn't seem to be it.

    I've been following you for a while, and this is the first time I've come across something that I can't make sense of. So, unusually, I thought I should query it.

    AJS

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  4. So gold DID bounce off that 50dma , and since you lashed out at ANON for his disagreeing with you , maybe you will give cudo's to that guy that said it might only go to the $1210 area. His post is removed , but you did say that, yes, surprises are to the upside in the GOLD seasonal...and the market movers waited at the 50 ma to LOAD UP on all the positions sold recently.And I hope you all bought at least 1/2 your Gold at todays low...it is a fast bull! : )

    or who knows, 2morrow may bring a second chance.

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  5. Yep if gold forms a swing low tomorrow there's a good chance the previous poster is going to be right and gold is now trying to leave as many riders behind in the dust as possible.

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  6. I agree , and the juniors look especially good, already running up with good volume buying and pausing along the way to let us onboard...I am buying pullbacks. Things look good , and UUP looks toppy here. Right at the 50ma. thanks toby

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  7. if gold closes below that $1235 price target , does it negate the swing low call when it closed above 1235 yesterday. Does that make it a failure or head fake move?

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  8. No swings don't get "negated". If gold were to drop back below $1210 it mihgt mean we would have one more push down into the cycle low but I think the odds heavily favor Tuesday marking the low.

    ReplyDelete