Today will be the 24th day of this daily cycle. The cycle can last up to 30 days and not be out of the ordinary, so it is possible that the daily cycle didn't bottom on Aug. 24th. I was expecting a push to $1240 before a pullback. We were a bit short of that target on Aug. 18th, but have now tagged it.
If the stock market continues to drop into the Friday jobs number we could see gold drop into another corrective move this week.
Last week silver broke out of a triangle consolidation. It's not unusual to see a throwback to test the upper trend line.
If gold does have another move down into the latter part of the timing band we can probably expect silver to drop back down to at least the $18.70ish level and test the triangle breakout.
There are also two gaps on the GLD and SLV chart that are begging to be filled before continuing higher.
If the coil breaks down watch gold for a swing low this week as a sign of the bottom.
some people draw trend lines from intraday high (top of the "LEGS"as you have for silver)- but I was taught to go from the top of the body of the candle..which on silver leads right back down to the 50day M.A. near $18.25 for a retest...Have you ever examined in past charts which method is more often reliable? I'm really not sure.Thx -Robert
ReplyDeleteI don't think silver will be perfect either way. It's a very thin market so it is going to be extremely volatile. I think wecan probably expect a fill of the gap on the SLV chart if gold breaks down out of the coil.
ReplyDeleteYour timing sucks.
ReplyDeleteSee gold move.UP.
Nothing wrong with that. It's not like I'm going to do something stupid like sell or short gold or miners :)
ReplyDeleteToby,is the Gold moving over 1245 already indicate that we are in day 5 of new cycle up?
ReplyDeleteIvan
That has been my opinion. I'm just not eliminating the possiblity of a move down to fill those gaps.
ReplyDeleteToby repeatedly has said Gold/silver would be a great run , volatile , and you may pay for not riding it out and instead trading in & out or shorting. "surprises to the upside"..so whoever the last anonymous post was...you arent really listening to him. He identifies 'probable circumstances'(like a coil pattern) to keep us from selling & panicking out if it drops. make your own decisions...Why rag on a guy trying to help you..._Robert
ReplyDeleteOh, It'll be filling gaps in the future alright!
ReplyDeleteJust, not the ones you think it will.
Raise your gaps Chico.
And..work on your timing.
P.S. Enjoy the run.
I use to follow your subscribers reports very strictly. It seems you has some kind of doubt ,that we may still go down ,but now I feel we are in the right direction:)))). Do you think such dayly cycle could go up until September 15-20?
ReplyDeleteIvan
I have no doubt at all. I'm just riding the bull following the Old Turkey strategy.
ReplyDeleteI would never sell even if the coil had broken down because something like this can and does happen in bull markets.
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteI would tend to agree. I was expecting it to last another day or maybe two before possibly breaking down to fill the gaps. Now it looks like it's just going to get busy testing the old highs.
Don't worry about the small stuff. Most gold players are trying to finesse the tops and the bottoms. One day like in stocks back in August 1982, the shares will break out and not look back.
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteVolume based HUI study shows exhausting buying volume.
I expect a 3-5% of HUI drop in the next 3-6 trading days.
On your kind request I can produce a chart.
Thanks for your posts!
OMG I missed this rally :(......I don't know which point I can get back in or maybe I need to chase it...sad!.....Sing
ReplyDelete