Gary, what do you say about the conclusion in this post: http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/gold-and-oil-on-the-verge-of-something-big-heros-rarely-win/
I would suggest it is way too late in the intermediate cycle for the dollar to continue higher for much longer and for oil to continue lower for much longer.
Gold on the other hand is early enough in its intermediate cycle to still have room to drop but it will have to do it despite a falling dollar. That being said the gold market is in the control of the paper market and there are forces there that want price lower so it very well could fall despite a dropping dollar.
Considering that the Fed can secretly create unlimited amounts of money to prop up the markets, and the likelihood that the powers that be have far more control over the markets now than in any other time in history, could the market continue to go up, up, up indefinitely?
Lets be honest..nobody knows when this parabola will break..perhaps it already has..or perhaps it will go to new highs..or somewhere in between..Gary is guessing as much as anyone and honestly I dont find these guesses very useful. In my opinion people should be out of the stock market now and wait for the collapse..when it comes it will be quick so trying to trade it is foolhardy unless you want to be glued to your computer every second. Wait for the market to drop 20-30 percent..settle down...then put some money back in. I think gold may be setting up for a bottom soon also..all the technicals suggest we are close..within a week or two.
Well we caught the bottom of the last intermediate correction, so we have the luxury of a break even stop. We also have a Fed that is clearly protecting the stock market as they taper QE.
I don'y see ant compelling reason not to be in the stock market under these conditions with a trailing stop.
I don't know what technicals you are looking at for gold but it is on the verge of making a lower intermediate low and the triangle consolidation has broken to the down side. I wouldn't be y trying to pick a bottom in that market right now.
Gold is going to need a catalyst to turn it back up.
This is a very dangerous market..we have gone years without a real correction. Its just up and up and up..the internals are weakening..we have giddy social media stocks. Everyone is wildly bullish..this is a perfect recipe for a crash. When it comes down it will be violent and quick..I dont want any exposure even with stops in a market that is screaming for a violent correction..there will be plenty of time to get in at much lower prices within the next 2-6 months. Everyone including you are bearish on gold and its still above 1240..yes it may drop a bit lower but I think we are close to a reversal..
My stance on gold is: Call me if it recovers the manipulation zone at 1277. That would reverse the massive attack from last week and indicate that the powers that be are losing control of pricing. Until I see that happen there/s just no need to try and pick a bottom this early in the intermediate cycle.
Would you explain why you believe the market will crash, rather than continue upwards? Since the markets are manipulated more now than perhaps any other time in history, and the Fed can secretly pump unlimited trillions into the market, what's stopping it from continuing upwards? Do historical comparisons from the past, and technical analysis have any value in a manipulated market?
The Fed has allowed the market to enter a parabolic advance. Those always crash. They won't be able to stop the stock bubble from popping anymore than they could stop the housing bubble from imploding.
That being said I don't think we are at a top yet.
If those in power can direct unlimited amounts of created money specifically into the equities market, it seems like it could continue upwards without crashing? I hear you saying that no amount of money creation that is used to buy equities will stop the crash, I still don't understand why?
This parabola may already be coming down, it could be in 3 weeks, it could be in 4 months..but its coming down soon..you dont want much exposure when it comes crashing down. Gold is despised..the sentiment towards it as about as bad as it has ever been and we are still above the lows of 2013..bullish sign. But we may still go down to 1220 or so in gold..
Gary, what do you say about the conclusion in this post: http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/gold-and-oil-on-the-verge-of-something-big-heros-rarely-win/
ReplyDeleteRegards Anders
I would suggest it is way too late in the intermediate cycle for the dollar to continue higher for much longer and for oil to continue lower for much longer.
ReplyDeleteGold on the other hand is early enough in its intermediate cycle to still have room to drop but it will have to do it despite a falling dollar. That being said the gold market is in the control of the paper market and there are forces there that want price lower so it very well could fall despite a dropping dollar.
I wonder if Alibaba will be that final high? Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteConsidering that the Fed can secretly create unlimited amounts of money to prop up the markets, and the likelihood that the powers that be have far more control over the markets now than in any other time in history, could the market continue to go up, up, up indefinitely?
Lets be honest..nobody knows when this parabola will break..perhaps it already has..or perhaps it will go to new highs..or somewhere in between..Gary is guessing as much as anyone and honestly I dont find these guesses very useful.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion people should be out of the stock market now and wait for the collapse..when it comes it will be quick so trying to trade it is foolhardy unless you want to be glued to your computer every second.
Wait for the market to drop 20-30 percent..settle down...then put some money back in. I think gold may be setting up for a bottom soon also..all the technicals suggest we are close..within a week or two.
Well we caught the bottom of the last intermediate correction, so we have the luxury of a break even stop. We also have a Fed that is clearly protecting the stock market as they taper QE.
ReplyDeleteI don'y see ant compelling reason not to be in the stock market under these conditions with a trailing stop.
I don't know what technicals you are looking at for gold but it is on the verge of making a lower intermediate low and the triangle consolidation has broken to the down side. I wouldn't be y
trying to pick a bottom in that market right now.
Gold is going to need a catalyst to turn it back up.
This is a very dangerous market..we have gone years without a real correction. Its just up and up and up..the internals are weakening..we have giddy social media stocks. Everyone is wildly bullish..this is a perfect recipe for a crash.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes down it will be violent and quick..I dont want any exposure even with stops in a market that is screaming for a violent correction..there will be plenty of time to get in at much lower prices within the next 2-6 months.
Everyone including you are bearish on gold and its still above 1240..yes it may drop a bit lower but I think we are close to a reversal..
My stance on gold is: Call me if it recovers the manipulation zone at 1277. That would reverse the massive attack from last week and indicate that the powers that be are losing control of pricing. Until I see that happen there/s just no need to try and pick a bottom this early in the intermediate cycle.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWould you explain why you believe the market will crash, rather than continue upwards? Since the markets are manipulated more now than perhaps any other time in history, and the Fed can secretly pump unlimited trillions into the market, what's stopping it from continuing upwards? Do historical comparisons from the past, and technical analysis have any value in a manipulated market?
Thanks, I value your insight!
The Fed has allowed the market to enter a parabolic advance. Those always crash. They won't be able to stop the stock bubble from popping anymore than they could stop the housing bubble from imploding.
ReplyDeleteThat being said I don't think we are at a top yet.
Hmm, so no amount of money creation (even many trillions) can stop a parabolic rise from crashing?
DeleteAt some point the parabola collapses and all that money flows into something else.
DeleteIf those in power can direct unlimited amounts of created money specifically into the equities market, it seems like it could continue upwards without crashing? I hear you saying that no amount of money creation that is used to buy equities will stop the crash, I still don't understand why?
DeleteThis parabola may already be coming down, it could be in 3 weeks, it could be in 4 months..but its coming down soon..you dont want much exposure when it comes crashing down.
ReplyDeleteGold is despised..the sentiment towards it as about as bad as it has ever been and we are still above the lows of 2013..bullish sign. But we may still go down to 1220 or so in gold..