Wednesday, July 9, 2014

CHART OF THE DAY


25 comments:

  1. Lets ride, giddy up!!.......jj

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  2. Lets be honest Gary you really dont have any idea on how high this move goes and when it drops next? You were talking about it going to 1285 a week ago..now you think its 1360 then drops to 1320. Basically again anything is possible..my take is it could just as easily jump to 1400+ now then drop back to 1360 or higher before the next leg up. So again this daily cycle theory is not very useful as sometimes daily cycle can last 15 days other times 30 days..and nobody knows the amountof the moves within these cycles..

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  3. Of course one has to react day to day to what the market gives us. But to say it's not useful would be quite an understatement. It has allowed us to make almost 20% in the metals portfolio in 4 weeks. And that's unleveraged with very low risk

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  4. I am not a day trader and I guess you are. I just personally find it ridiculous all the super precise forecasts you trot out here day in and day out which get modified by the hour. Nobody has any clue where the price of gold will be over the next few days or even a week or two. I think we all agree that gold is going up int he long term but why bother with your daily forecasts which are usually wrong.

    I mean you have gone from gold going to 1000 then it going up to 1400+ then back to 1000..gold going to 1285 last week now its going to 1360 then 1320..I mean the chance of you getting these micromoves right is very low. The daily cycle theory is very vague..I mean have we had the daily cycle low this week at 1312..or is it next week at 1340..I mean now youhave a low near 1320 on your chart..in a few days maybe the low will be at 1350..
    Anyone with any metal exposure has made 20 percent in 4 weeks..I have been holding for months..

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  5. Well since you appear to be determined to manufacture the story however it best suits your agenda let me set the record straight.

    I've said over and over and over that there are forces in play trying to drive gold artificially down to $1000. I've also said over and over that I had no idea whether or not they would succeed. Just that they were trying. In Dec of 2013 it looked like they might succeed. Now it seems unlikely.

    In March gold was set to rise above $1400. I recognized in mid March that another attack on the gold market had occurred and that was likely going to prevent that move to 1400 from happening. That's why I told everyone to exit on March 17. It turns out that was the exact top of the rally.

    You can clearly see from my latest charts and from my interviews with Al Korelin that we've been watching the premarket attacks lately but that I thought gold would fight it off and probably give us one more pop higher before the daily cycle topped. The metals are one of the most heavily manipulated markets in the world so nothing is ever set in stone. But my cycles give me a road map to follow all the while keeping an eye out for an attack that could divert the market from the expected path.

    And finally the difference between you and us is that you may have gathered the 20% return but you also weathered the big drop so all in all your portfolio has gone nowhere for months. While we got out at the exact top in March and back in at the exact bottom in June and our portfolio is up big.

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    1. Nice Bitch Slap Gary!!, lol......the difference "complicated" is Gary trades what the chart action and cycles create and they are a moving target.....I followed every step and although gold targets have not been reached on the up and down swings...like $1420 or $1000..the POSITIONS creating a great % return have been Bang-On!!!

      I'am a day trader, don't be so cheap "complicated" and sign up to Gary's calls and make yourself some real money!!.........jj

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    2. "top in March and back in at the exact bottom in June".. wow .. really?? does that mean another top in September?

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    3. The normal timing band for an intermediate top would be in Sept or early Oct.That being said we always have to be on the lookout for another manipulation event that could turn gold back down earlier than that.

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    4. what I find really aggravating is how people like you point only the correct calls you made. There are so many wrong calls you have made in the past few months and you never mention them so basically you are always right if we subscribe to your view. This note of you buying the miners a couple days ago was not mentioned anywhere until after the fact..anything you had posted on here was talking about a correction coming likely down to 1285. Then..after the fact..you claim you bought at the end of the day on tuesday..maybe you did but just looking at what you have posted on this web site over the past week or so would give the impression that you are expecting a decline. Now your latest post suggest the decline is coming but it will be from higher levels.
      So what happens if we break 1360 convincingly..will your next call be a drop to 1350..or what if we crash this week to 1300..then I guess you will tell us you were right because of what you said last week. Your forecasts change so much that essentially you can always claim to be right so what is the real usefulness?? Most of us are not daytraders who are going to move in and out every few days..I guess as a daytrader your service is useful but with a longer timeline your forecasts are just too variable.

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    5. I don't have a problem with making a wrong call. Everyone makes them. The best in the world are rarely better than 60%.

      The only problem is I have made any wrong calls in a while now. Not since I recognized the manipulation and started taking it into account when planning my strategies. But as soon as I get one wrong I'll let you know so you can gloat.

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    6. Here's one you can use. I got in too early on grains and softs recently and we are having to weather a drawdown in the commodity portfolio. There's some ammunition for you. Go to town.

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    7. Well I am still waiting on your daily cycle low around 1285 which you called one week ago? We will see how well that pans out.

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    8. Do you not understand that markets change and the traders have to change with them. There will be a move down into a daily cycle low but it was never set in stone that it was going to come at 1285. That was Doc's target, not mine.

      As I have said many times in the past cycles are no good for picking targets, just timing bands. The cycle low could come at 1285, 1300, 1310 or 1320 there's no way to know in advance because we don't know in advance where the cycle top is going to form at (it may be forming today).

      Cycles are just used to spot the turn. That's how I called the bottom on June 5.

      It's late in the daily cycle so I know a corrective move is coming, but I can't tell you exactly when it's going to start, all I know is it's due.So I'm not going to be surprised when it happens and I'll expect it. Then when it does happen I'll be prepared to buy heavily again at that bottom.

      You appear to think there are absolutes in this business and sorry to disappoint you but there aren't. One doesn't have to have absolutes to make money and I'll tell you right now picking a top is next to impossible. I've gotten lucky recently but I usually try to be early, because it's almost always better to be a little early than late.

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    9. complicated, learn how to read a chart, learn how to trade or you will be forever be staring at your monitor waiting for $1285.....what is it that investors like YOU never seem to understand....nothing! absolutely nothing! in the investment world is black and white, trends, volumes, data events, etc, etc change daily...so investors must change with the new trend or Mr Market will school your ego big time.

      To follow cycles, chart trends, requires some intelligence and never, ever a stubborn approach or you'll be left behind. Many advisors make incorrect calls BUT its those that protect capital and change as the momentum changes that make great % gains.

      I'd say 2014 Gary has been batting 90% with his pm's sector calls.....you really going to call out a guy batting 900 as you sit in the bleachers, really complicated!

      jj

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    10. I guess I wonder whats the point of all your super precise charts..why put out a chart showing a move to 1285 and then call it within 5-10 days..it seems to me you are setting yourself up for failure. Plus whats the usefulness of it.

      My suggestion is to be more careful on your forecasts..you will rarely be able to predict to the precision that you imply. Hence be honest as you are in your comments..tell people that a cycle low is coming but it could be anywhere from 1285 to 1350. Tell them it could be anytime in the next 3 weeks not 5-10 days. Why imply a precision and accuracy that you know you do not have?

      We know gold could collapse 50 dollars in 2 days..whether manipulated or not..it could surge to 1400 in a week also. We all can see that gold and gold stocks are coming out a 15 month basing pattern..hence a bull market is emerging. Keep it simple. Look at trendlines and trendline breaks..

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  6. Gary, I'm assuming it was the chart action not cycles that had you repurchase your long positions or did the turn date expire?........jj

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    1. It was the behavior in the miners. They were suggesting a breakout was coming.

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    2. Well another positive point, if the bull has returned the Miners must lead, we've got higher lows in gold, now we need higher highs..........jj

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  7. Per Jim Carry, the top in gold is around today, with a slide to the bottom (see: http://goo.gl/e7qLQo ).
    Gary, if he's right, it will fulfil your original forecast of the coil pattern unwinding down, down... till end-July.
    What's your view Gary?

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  8. Mas,
    See the chart for what I'm expecting to happen. Keep in mind the lines are to illustrate direction not actual targets. For instance gold may not make it all the way to 1360 before beginning the move down into the daily cycle low. But it's late enough in the daily cycle that the declining phase of the cycle isn't likely to last very long. Maybe a bottom around mid next week.

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  9. Wow....the minute things don't work out as " expected " the writer is in deep s..t ...otherwise if he is right or close to it HE IS THE BEST ....the King is dead ...long live the King ...
    Martin Armstrong was expecting a low in gold at around $ 1050 last June / July already ....he is not very well liked since then .
    bogi

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    1. Bogi, Armstrong's 2013 Metals report was calling for a low June 2013....his targets were $1236....$1197....$1185 ($1179 was the low) $1040....$1020.....$930

      His 2014 + outlook is not available yet....a June low in 2015 under $1179 is still very possible........jj

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    2. OK, maybe in the metal report you get more details but on June 28 2013 he wrote ....bottom in temporarily ..decline to resume ....he looked for lower lows than $ 1178 and we are still waiting 12 month later

      http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/28/gold-should-bottom-today-temporarily/
      MY POINT ...he is not as good as most are expecting him to be . Did you see what he has for the DOW in the future ? Anywhere between 20,000 to 31,000 by OCT. 2015....A pretty wide gap , eh ?
      He is excellent with history / cycles but there are things - like euro / interest rates. / at times with gold .....not better than the 60% . No, I'm not dumping on him - know him since 1996 but not all is a hit either . This being said to be easy on this writer here .
      bogi

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    3. I think those that don't make a living from the markets are always expecting the advisors to hit homeruns whenever at bat and those who play the game realize its impossible....what would a player get if his batting average was 600 he'd be a God!!

      There is so much government intervention in the global markets it makes crystal ball calling really hard, lol

      The best trade set up was dumping gold Sept 2011 and buying US equities.....Armstrong put many onto that trade.......jj

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  10. Gary, latest spin on Vegas water situation..........jj

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/las-vegas-more-screwed-drought-drains-lake-mead-lowest-hoover-dam-built

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