Saturday, January 18, 2014


It's been my opinion for the last several weeks that gold formed an intermediate degree bottom on December 31. That being said I'm still a bit nervous that the sector could suffer another manipulation event (like the flash crash two weeks ago) so I haven't been willing to enter a firm long position just yet. 

However there are definite signs that this bear market is probably over. The large momentum divergences on the weekly charts are one.

The heavy volume flowing into the ultra-mining ETF is another sign that smart money is positioning for a major bear market bottom.

Presently I'm waiting to see if gold can break through the intermediate downtrend line and make a higher high above the previous daily cycle top. This would confirm the intermediate bottom. Coincidentally this is roughly the same number in both cases. Gold will need to move above $1268.

I would caution that a move above $1268 probably isn't a timely entry into the sector however. As gold is going to be moving into the latter part of its daily cycle timing band by the end of next week, a better strategy would most likely be to allow gold to bounce off of the 150 day moving average and then retest the $1250 level from above at the next daily cycle low.

So I think a little patience is warranted over the next two weeks. Allow gold to confirm the intermediate degree bottom. If it does, then prepare to buy aggressively at the next short-term pullback.