Monday, June 24, 2013


It appears the stock market crash/semi-crash may be getting underway. The bond market is certainly coming unraveled. This is what happens when the Fed tries to force the market to do something it isn't meant to do. It will behave for a while, but ultimately everything comes unglued and the end result is much worse than if the market had been allowed to function naturally.

We saw the result of the Greenspan Put from 2002-2007. It ended with the second worst bear market and economic recession in history. 

This time will be no different. The Fed has held rates artificially low for many years. I think the market has decide enough is enough and now the reversal is happening much faster and more violently than would have occurred normally. 85 billion a month is not going to be nearly enough to stop the rout in the bond market. 

The S&P has already lost all the gains from April & May, if we lose March also the market will be set up for the crash or semi-crash I've been predicting as everyone tries to get out the door at the same time and salvage something before it's all gone.

The crash in bonds and stocks is in my opinion the setup for the next leg of the commodity bull market. Ben is going to have to massively increase QE to try and regain control of the bond market (only temporarily) and reflate the bubble in stocks. The liquidity will find it's way into the commodity markets over the next two years, just like it did in 2007/08 when Ben tried to reflate the real estate bubble.

Once this process begins, I believe it will initiate the bubble phase of the gold bull.