As of Friday the dollar was on the 11th day of its current daily cycle. The normal duration of a the dollar index daily cycle is 18 to 28 days, with the average being about 23 or 24 days. This suggests that the dollar should bottom somewhere around August 21st or 22nd. As you can see in the chart below whenever the dollar moves down into an intermediate degree trough it generates strong gains in asset prices.
What follows, once the dollar bottoms and its next intermediate degree rally begins, is not going to be pretty. Stocks are going to start to struggle and ultimately move down hard in September and probably October if the Fed doesn't unleash QE3 at the September FOMC meeting.
By the end of August and certainly by the time we get into September the markets are going to call the central bankers bluff, and it is going to take more than words and the threat of quantitative easing to keep asset prices propped up.
I have covered the rest of the forecast in depth in the weekend report available to premium subscribers.
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