I am making Monday's premium report available to the public.
I doubt anyone was surprised by the reversal in the dollar index today.
been made painfully clear that Bernanke is not going to tolerate a
rising dollar, at least not for very long. Cycles are still working, and
still generating bounces out of daily cycle lows, but they are never
allowed to get any traction before the next beat down starts.
I would say there’s a pretty good
chance that today’s reversal is signaling that the current daily cycle
topped on day four, and the pattern of lower lows and lower highs is
Presumably the dollar will now start to
decline and penetrate the May 1st intraday low before the next
significant bounce. The daily cycle timing bands have adhered pretty
closely to standard durations in the dollar index. I don’t see any
indication that has changed, so we can probably expect the next
significant bounce sometime around the last week of May.
If the dollar cycle has topped then the half cycle low scenario is still on the table.
this scenario the stock market is on day 19 of its daily cycle and due
to form a half cycle low at any time. As most of you probably remember,
I’ve been expecting an extended consolidation in the general stock
market. A dollar cycle topping on day 4 and a half cycle low on day 19
would be consistent with that theory.
If by some chance the dollar can
recover and continue to rally for a few more days it could force stocks
to penetrate the April 10th low. In that scenario I would re-phase of
the daily and intermediate cycles as shown in the chart below.
the moment I have no idea which scenario has a greater odds of playing
out, although I must admit the reversal today does not look good for the
In my opinion gold is trying to move
down into one more failed and left translated daily cycle, which I’m fairly confident would mark an intermediate degree bottom. However, as
you can see from the chart below, as soon as Bernanke broke the dollar
rally gold lost all of its downside momentum.
has turned gold’s B-Wave decline into a mostly sideways consolidation
for the last two months. If the dollar has indeed topped then I have my
doubts that gold will be able to finish its intermediate decline and
penetrate the April 4 low. The fact that the current daily cycle is
running out of time may indicate that we are going to have to leave the
April 4 low as an early intermediate bottom.
would prefer to see gold drop down and penetrate $1612 as it would make
the intermediate cycle count “fit” better. I know that’s not what most
of you would like to see. Most of you probably just want the draw down
to end as quickly as possible. I on the other hand understand that this
is a secular bull market and that this is going to be a winning trade (well unless the bull market has ended ). So I’m not overly worried
about a draw down. In a bull market timing mistakes get corrected.
To me a move below $1612 means that we
didn’t waste an entire daily cycle on a sideways consolidation and that
we have all of a new intermediate cycle still ahead of us. That’s why I
would prefer to see gold poke through the April 4 low. It would signal
that we have more time to rally, an entire daily cycle more.
So even though we weren’t able to time
a perfect bottom, I’m confident that we have entered “close enough” and
when the regression to the mean occurs, and it always eventually does,
our mining positions are going to deliver a very hefty profit.
Heck, if one was willing to just turn
their computer off and wait for the bubble phase of the bull market, our
current positions are probably set up to deliver a 500-1000 percent
gain. Of course the cost is that you have to ignore the market and go on
with your life for the next several years.
When you think about it,
that’s a pretty good bargain. Do absolutely nothing, and get rich doing
I think we are
at, or very close to what is likely to be a once or twice a decade
opportunity in the metals sector, especially the mining stocks. If you
like today's report the $10 one week trial
is still available. That includes the archives, cycle counts, COT
reports, and model portfolio. I strongly suggest one read the last
several weeks of reports so they understand how we got here and what is