Tuesday, January 17, 2012

HAS GOLD'S D-WAVE BOTTOMED?

It seems like most analysts, and gold bugs are now assuming that the reversal on December 29 marked the bottom of golds D-Wave decline. It's certainly possible that we saw a bottom two weeks ago but it's still too early to make that assumption. Gold, and most assets are about to be severely tested. How gold handles that test will be a big clue as to whether or not the correction is over.

What many analysts are overlooking is the impending daily and intermediate cycle correction that is coming due in the stock market. When the stock market moves down into a cycle low, especially an intermediate cycle low, it generates a tremendous amount of selling pressure. Invariably that selling pressure bleeds into virtually every other asset class, even gold, as you can see in the chart below. Over the last two years there were only two daily cycle corrections in the stock market where gold was unaffected (I've marked them with green arrows).



The stock market is now in the timing band for a move down into a daily cycle low. As you can see in the chart below those tend to occur almost like clockwork about every 35 to 40 days. As of Friday the stock market was on day 33. On top of that we have a larger intermediate degree cycle that should bottom sometime in March/April. The selling pressure generated at an intermediate bottom is much more intense than a mere daily cycle low. That means sometime around the middle of March or early April things are going to be looking pretty bleak. My best guess is at that time interest rates will be spiking in France and maybe the UK (along with all of the other countries that are already having debt issues).



It's late enough in the daily cycle that there is a good chance the market began that move down into its daily cycle bottom on Friday, despite recovering most of the sell off before the close. I say that because we have a coil pattern playing out in the stock market. 

Contrary to what most people believe, the initial break out of a volatility coil is usually a false move that is soon followed by a much more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction. In our case the volatility coil broke to the upside and by Friday it was already trying to reverse. Once the stock market moves back through the coil zone it would be very unlikely to recover those levels until after the next intermediate degree bottom, which like I pointed out isn't due until March/April.



Sometime in the next 4-8 days we should see the stock market break its cycle trend line. It's very rare for a move down into a daily cycle low not to break the cycle trend line. So for our purposes I think we can probably assume that it will.


If the stock market just retraces 50% of the daily cycle advance (assuming 1297 is the top) then we should see a pretty hefty sell off in the next week or two. 

That kind of selling pressure will almost certainly have some affect on gold. If the D-Wave is still in progress it's going to have a sharp affect on gold, probably forcing gold back below the $1523 December bottom. How gold handles the stock market moving down into its daily cycle low will give us a big clue as to whether the D-Wave has bottomed or not.

And even stiffer test is going to occur as the stock market moves down into its intermediate bottom in March/April. If gold can't hold above $1523 as stocks move into a daily cycle low then it is going to get driven much lower during the intense selling pressure that will be generated when stocks move down into a larger degree intermediate bottom.


A couple of things to keep in mind.


The last C-wave was the greatest in both magnitude and duration of the entire secular bull market. Is it possible that a 2 1/2 year, 100%+ rally can be corrected with only a 38% retracement in four short months?



There is also the problem with the last intermediate cycle in gold running very short at only 13 weeks (normal duration is about 20-25 weeks). More often than not a short cycle is followed by a long cycle that evens out the next larger cycle. In this case the next larger cycle would be the yearly cycle. 

If December 29th did mark an intermediate bottom then we would've had two intermediate cycles of only 13 weeks each. A short cycle followed by another short cycle is a pretty rare occurrence. In this case exceptionally so because the yearly cycle low isn't do until February/March. If I take into account nothing else I would have to assume that gold still has about 5 to 6 more weeks before the final D-Wave and yearly cycle low are formed.



That doesn't mean that gold has to drop a considerable distance below $1523. If it does turn out that gold continues lower into a more normal intermediate timing band I doubt that gold would move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is at about $1400. That also corresponds with the extensive consolidation zone in the summer of 2010.


One other thing to consider is the powerful correlation of a stronger dollar whenever the stock market moves down into a cycle low. We should continue to see the dollar spike higher over the next couple of weeks as the stock market drops down into its daily cycle trough, followed by a much more powerful rise during the intermediate degree decline due later in the spring. As you can see in the chart below gold has had little ability to resist a rising dollar.




So unless you think that the stock market will never drop down into a cycle low again, or that the market and the dollar will drop simultaneously (very unlikely), then gold is going to be severely tested as the dollar spikes sharply higher during the next few weeks and months as the stock market works its way down into first, a daily cycle low, and then a much more serious intermediate degree correction.


Right now investors need to be on the sidelines while we wait to see how gold handles the stock market's move down into its daily cycle low. If gold can hold above $1523 while the stock market suffers what is likely to be a rather sharp correction then the odds will improve dramatically that the D-Wave did in fact bottom in December.


If however gold follows the stock market down and breaches that $1523 pivot then the odds are very high that the D-Wave is still in progress and will not bottom until late February/mid-March.


I am currently still running the one week, $10 introductory offer for the SMT premium newsletter. Since we should see the stock market form its daily cycle low sometime in the next 1-2 weeks now would be a perfect time to sample the newsletter.

33 comments:

  1. That has to be some of the best technical analysis I have seen on Gold in quite some time...Great Work!
    I am reposting on our blog with your permission. www.lhiblog.com

    thanks
    Jeff

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  2. But, S&P is breaking above 1300 today. AAPL all time high. NDX yearly high.

    Why are you so sure we'll fall from here after the breakout in AAPL and NDX???

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  3. The reasons are too numerous to go into here. You will find it all spelled out in the nightly newsletter.

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  4. I cannot wait to see how you explain away this move up in the SPX.

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  6. There's an important cross current in play here which adds an extra ingredient that the author does not address. That would be that this current broad equities rally is occurring ALONG WITH the dollar rally. Sure, the S&P might be due for a pull back, but looking at the chart of the dollar and waning momentum, it also looks like the dollar is due for a healthy pull back, as well. Look at the USD's 200 DMA. It's at a little more than 76! Looks like a pretty stretched rubber band to me and it's what makes the forecast for the PMs, copper etc., as priced in USD, a bit tougher. If anything, I'd be more likely to get on the sidelines of anything gold if I were dealing in Euros. Some pretty big players have been going long the Euro while the specs are still playing the long side of the dollar.

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  7. I said in the last couple of reports that we would probably see the down trend line at 1315 broken before a reversal.

    The market has to suck in all the technical traders, either shorts covering or just plain emotional retail traders buying before the top occurs.

    But I'll tell you the same thing I've been telling my subs for quite a while. Don't waste your time selling short. There isn't enough profit potential plus tops are almost impossible to hold on through.

    Just wait patiently until the correction occurs and then buy the bottom.

    As you will notice in the article I clearly state everyone should be on the sidelines, not selling short.

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  8. Gary,

    what if Oct was yearly cycle low?

    I guess we'll know when we see an intermediate cycle but with yearly being stretched into late 2011 if not beyond, and index above 200 and all indexes participating and bank indexes outperforming, then what if Oct was the yearly low?

    And the election year on the side

    1200-1250 is the chop zone, above which, bull control

    next mid-term must hold 1200-1250 (or above) to re-assert bull control

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  9. And, ya, selling short when there is bull control and MAs are in uptrend and positively aligned is bit too adventurous perhaps

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  10. The LEIs and other indicators have been turning up. Also, credit is expanding at a rate not seen before 2008.

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  11. Gary, I want to apologize for the way I phrase my comment above. I am extremely frustrated with this run up from Oct. You took the high road with the way you responded below. I promised to be more thoughtful with any future posts.

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  12. Good technical look. My only objection is the fact that the fed has talked about an overt trillion dollar QE in the next month or so. The whole Greek debacle might force the dollar up which lends to your outlook, but who knows. I also find it interesting that not to long ago the dollar and gold went up simultaneously which doesn't ever happen. What effect do you think a march QE would have on stocks and pms?

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  13. Ah yes ....the QE Q !!
    Not a matter of if or when anymore...its happening as we speak...the FED doesnt need or should one say "doesnt want to be overtly seen" printing money...the latest situation involving $500bln swaps arrangment with the ECB is exactly QE. The FED has become the CB to the world now. Who ultimately pays for this ....well its the flip of a coin...shared between the EUR and USA middle classes.
    Watching the USDX is futile in this climate not principly because of the large weighting of the EURO factor, moreover because of the ongoing debasement.
    When the ECB is forced to finally print, then both the USD and EURO go south in tandem.
    Meanwhile the s&p sits in denial until perhaps the 2Q12 when the facts will be undeniable about unsustainable profits and lack of growth. This throws up a very nasty scenario going into the fall with even worse to come in the 1Q13.

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  14. I am afraid you have overlooked the dollar sentiment It is much too bullish to continue it upward movement at this time. Also the EURO sentiment is extremely negative and I am expecting a big upward movement in the Euro, thus a big upward movment on the SP500--all time high.

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  15. I actually covered that in the weekend report. Dollar sentiment has been at extended levels for most of the last four months.

    The problem is that not only is sentiment bullish on the dollar it's also exceptionally high on the stock market. Since it's very unlikely that stocks and the dollar would fall simultaneously, sentiment is going to have to remain elevated in one of those two assets while the other drops.

    I tend to believe that the stock market is the one that will fail since it is now moving into the timing band for an intermediate degree decline.

    The dollar on the other hand is only halfway into its intermediate cycle and still has plenty of time to rally before moving down into its intermediate bottom.

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  17. Just a word of caution. I doubt that the stock market will top before the Fed announcement on Wednesday.

    So I wouldn't suggest selling short.

    Actually I almost never recommend selling short as it is generally a very tough way to make money and the profit potential is minimal compared to the long side.

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  18. selling short is tough even when technicals are poor and banks lag, no, technicals are positive, banks outperform, all sectors do well, there is a chance that we had a yearly cycle low when perm-bears where shouting end of the world Oct and Nov 2010, so, even if permas get it and index tops for good this trading cycle, which is a stretch, it still be tough to make it short and hang on short

    I do thing we had yearly low Oct-Nov 2010, if I am wrong, I will stop and book, if I am right, larger cycle technicals will buldoze over smaller cycle technicals and feed shorts to the burner

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  19. hi guys,
    why gold miner stocks have decoupled from gold price in recent week or two?
    it seems like the stocks missed out the +100$ of correction in gold??

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  20. Serg,

    Check this out:

    http://goldstockmania.com/the-gold-stocks-are-tracking-past-equity-bull-markets/#more-2026

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  21. Question to Gary, gold looks to be strongly oversold, actually near as much as it was in the deflationary low of 2008...and with QE3 coming and Iran now selling oil to India, China and possibly others in Gold, could we be at a dollar top and a strong buy opportunity for gold?

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  26. Well I don't generally buy gold when its 15 days into a daily cycle. Plus we have a warning bell with the miners not confirming the 150 point rally in gold.

    All in all, I'm going to wait on the sidelines and see what happens when gold moves down into its next daily cycle low.

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  27. Gary, I am a middleclass American who works in the oilfield and recently was turned onto a site newamerica26 and I could not believe all that I was hearing from your collegue but I gotta say I was not at all surprised I am no where near yalls knowledge with the stockmarket or global pricing or stocks in general but I do see our oil we drill for everyday 365 days a year stay on an increase. I would like to know more about obtaining some of yalls reports mentioned in the video and maybe start some kind of relief thing for my family to stay safe dint know if I can leave my email but I must start somewhere in showing yall I believe and want to start up it jaked25521@gmail.com I look forward to hearing from you.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Gary, I am a middle class American who works in the oilfield and was recently turned onto yalls newamerica26 site and was blown away, but must say I saw it coming too now I am no where near an expert in economics and all that other stuff but I see us drilling 365 days a year and where not slacking a bit, only when Obama got into office, but neither here or now and I have noticed our barrel prices getting higher then lower then even higher for sometime now. I believe all that was said and I would be interested in adopting more knowledge making some kind of relief for my family if bad times where near and preseving my family name I am trying to build

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  29. Gary, I am a middleclass American who works in the oilfield and recently was turned onto a site newamerica26 and I could not believe all that I was hearing from your collegue but I gotta say I was not at all surprised I am no where near yalls knowledge with the stockmarket or global pricing or stocks in general but I do see our oil we drill for everyday 365 days a year stay on an increase. I would like to know more about obtaining some of yalls reports mentioned in the video and maybe start some kind of relief thing for my family to stay safe dint know if I can leave my email but I must start somewhere in showing yall I believe and want to start up it jaked25521@gmail.com I look forward to hearing from you.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Gary, I am a middleclass American who works in the oilfield and recently was turned onto a site newamerica26 and I could not believe all that I was hearing from your collegue but I gotta say I was not at all surprised I am no where near yalls knowledge with the stockmarket or global pricing or stocks in general but I do see our oil we drill for everyday 365 days a year stay on an increase. I would like to know more about obtaining some of yalls reports mentioned in the video and maybe start some kind of relief thing for my family to stay safe dint know if I can leave my email but I must start somewhere in showing yall I believe and want to start up it jaked25521@gmail.com I look forward to hearing from you.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Ouch! McDonalds is still hiring.

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  32. Gary, do you think we have start of a solid move up? The $500B low interest ECB loans may also be kicking in inflationary expectations in Europe, as well as the fed of course today ~ There may not be a lower level to get in on for a while ~

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