Sunday, July 3, 2011

LOOKING FOR A BREAK

We've been waiting patiently for gold to move down into its intermediate degree correction. Now that the last daily cycle low has been breached we have confirmation that that correction is underway.

I've noted previously that bottoms tend to occur when smart money drives gold below a key technical level triggering stops
. Big money needs liquidity to enter large positions. They achieve that by taking out the technical traders stops below a key technical level. 

As this progresses over the next couple of weeks I'm fairly confident that the May $1462 pivot will be breached. I expect gold will at least retrace 50% of the recent rally back to the 150 day moving average .

   Click on chart to enlarge

The 150 has contained the last seven pullbacks. It's probably about time that quits working though. What I would really like to see is a test of the winter consolidation zone at around $1425.

This pullback should be the single best buying opportunity for the rest of the bull market as it is highly unlikely this intermediate cycle low will be violated again before the final blow off top later this decade.

5 comments:

  1. Por não ter seguindo a risca a sua orientação em relação ao ouro, perdi um bom dinheiro nas últimas duas semanas. Desta vez vou aguardar o fundo para entar com uma nova posição de compra alavancada para tentar recuperar tudo que perdi. Observação: De todas as análises que acessei(Trader Dan, Jim Sinclair Mineset, Safehaven, etc,) a sua é de longe a mais precisa. Abraços.

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  2. Excellent analysis Toby. I'm getting the same thing with pattern & momentum analyses: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2011/07/glls-confirmed-trend-up-mti-buy-3de.html
    Jordan

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