Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Historically the intermediate cycle averages about 19 to 20 weeks. The vast majority do not run past 25 weeks. At 22 weeks we are very late in the cycle and could bottom at any time.

The average dollar cycle lasts 19 to 20 weeks also. Since the last cycle was short it would not be unusual to see an extended dollar cycle of up to 25 weeks. Weekly MACD has turned down. It is my opinion the dollar has now resumed its secular bear trend into a major three year cycle low due next year.


  1. Toby, I agree with you that the dollar index will go down hard some time in the future. Just to confirm my understanding of your writing, are you saying that there are about 9 weeks to go for the dollar to reach a mini 25-week cycle low, and on its way to a major low point next year? Thanks.

  2. The average intermediate dollar cycle is 19-20 weeks but it can run as long as 25 weeks and not be out of the normal range.

    Often a short cycle is followed by a long cycle. The last cycle was short so I think there is a decnet chance of a long cycle this time.

    And yes the dollar is due to head down into a major 3 year cycle low next year. On top of that I don't believe for one minute that the Fed can get way with printing trillions dollars and nothing bad happen to the currency. The world just doesn't work that way.


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