Yes that has the potential to do serious damage to the gold chart if the bullion banks can break this daily cycle and turn the intermediate cycle back down this early.
Wrong! there has been no bull market ending in history that the average dumb investor did not create the top, the 12 year run gold had was the most hated bull run ever, hedge funds, mutual fund managers, pension funds and the average John did not participate and if they did their exposure was 5-10%
A blow off top will come, remember the 70's bull run saw a 50% retracement before taking off creating the $800+ top and the average shmuck was buying that top....$1923-50%= $960.......jj
"most hated bull run ever, hedge funds, mutual fund managers, pension funds and the average John did not participate and if they did their exposure was 5-10%"
Ken, it was delayed data but one could find out what the major mutual fund managers were holding, a Goldcorp was about as aggressive a general equity fund got. Many advisors who were following the gold sector were bullish as they watched the action but during their interviews they were suggesting only a 5010% weighting.
I think the biggest mistake those that rode the bull from 2000-2011 was thinking a decent % of investors were also long the sector....I knew nobody outside the goldbuggers who owned physical gold and silver.
When one follows the action on a daily basis you know who's in and who's watching................jj
This may sound crazy as the whole sector has been whacked hard these past couple years especially the stocks but I still think the gold bugs are too bullish, a true washout has not taken place, yet....
Well Gary next week gold and silver options expire along with the FOMC, lets see how those events test sub $1300, next Thurs close for the month will be very telling on the charts.......jj
Hmm. I am an old duffer today, but I remember 2.85 wages back in 68. Union job and with overtime and sometimes double time! I lived quite easily. I was only 17 and had left home but could pay for my rent with one weeks salary (about 125.00). In 1970 I was able to buy (with my parents money) a place in Santa Cruz for 12,000 dollars or in my economic range two years salary.
Today I might make 14.00 an hour = say 560 + a week but I would need to work two weeks to meet my local rent costs. Houses would be over 5 times my 26,000 + salary. Throw in the extra inflation of fuel, heating and food and the affordability of housing gets even worse. Can't remember the taxation rates between then and now, but the bottom line is that housing is becoming ever less affordable for all young people. Add in the inflated costs for insurance..
October or November? That sounds like a long way down.
ReplyDeleteYes that has the potential to do serious damage to the gold chart if the bullion banks can break this daily cycle and turn the intermediate cycle back down this early.
ReplyDeleteGold bull is over.. feel like QQQ after 2002
ReplyDeleteWrong! there has been no bull market ending in history that the average dumb investor did not create the top, the 12 year run gold had was the most hated bull run ever, hedge funds, mutual fund managers, pension funds and the average John did not participate and if they did their exposure was 5-10%
DeleteA blow off top will come, remember the 70's bull run saw a 50% retracement before taking off creating the $800+ top and the average shmuck was buying that top....$1923-50%= $960.......jj
"most hated bull run ever, hedge funds, mutual fund managers, pension funds and the average John did not participate and if they did their exposure was 5-10%"
Deletehow do you know that???
Ken, it was delayed data but one could find out what the major mutual fund managers were holding, a Goldcorp was about as aggressive a general equity fund got. Many advisors who were following the gold sector were bullish as they watched the action but during their interviews they were suggesting only a 5010% weighting.
DeleteI think the biggest mistake those that rode the bull from 2000-2011 was thinking a decent % of investors were also long the sector....I knew nobody outside the goldbuggers who owned physical gold and silver.
When one follows the action on a daily basis you know who's in and who's watching................jj
This may sound crazy as the whole sector has been whacked hard these past couple years especially the stocks but I still think the gold bugs are too bullish, a true washout has not taken place, yet....
What about your short IC theory from last week?
ReplyDeleteThat is a possibility, and one that I will keep in mind if gold does break below 1292.
DeleteWell Gary next week gold and silver options expire along with the FOMC, lets see how those events test sub $1300, next Thurs close for the month will be very telling on the charts.......jj
ReplyDeleteI would agree. Gold really needs to put some distance between $1292 between now and then or it's at risk of forming a failed daily cycle next week.
DeleteHmm. I am an old duffer today, but I remember 2.85 wages back in 68. Union job and with overtime and sometimes double time! I lived quite easily. I was only 17 and had left home but could pay for my rent with one weeks salary (about 125.00). In 1970 I was able to buy (with my parents money) a place in Santa Cruz for 12,000 dollars or in my economic range two years salary.
ReplyDeleteToday I might make 14.00 an hour = say 560 + a week but I would need to work two weeks to meet my local rent costs. Houses would be over 5 times my 26,000 + salary. Throw in the extra inflation of fuel, heating and food and the affordability of housing gets even worse. Can't remember the taxation rates between then and now, but the bottom line is that housing is becoming ever less affordable for all young people. Add in the inflated costs for insurance..