GDX has been holding above its 200 ema for nearly a month now and managed to climb right back above that price down trend line in a single day. Darn - this looks real good!
Any thoughts on the US Dollar index? Appears to be threatening a right translated daily cycle on day 11 - 13 or thereabouts. I would think the gold bulls would like to see it heading south right about now. ?
I don't think the dollar has to drop for gold to rise. Heck the stock market rose right along with the dollar. It's not like the dollar is actually gaining purchasing power. It's just gaining it against the euro but not against real stuff.
Question Gary, gave your weekending market close audio a listen at KER
Your concerned that if Gold takes out $1292 it creates a Left Translated cycle suggesting lower pricing perhaps over the next 3+ months, gold needs to take out $1347 to create a positive cycle move suggesting a bullish trend for 3+ months.
Why doesn't the failure during March... topping out at $1392 create a Left Translated cycle event as $1434 (Aug high) was not taken out suggesting at a min $1240 gold will be tested and perhaps even $1180?
Hasn't Gold already created a Failed cycle event with lower highs since $1487....$1434....$1392 and now perhaps $1346?
The March top was a different degree top. It was an intermediate top. The fact that it failed to make a higher high was a concern but it went on to hold above the Dec. low. So we have a pattern of higher intermediate lows. We are still looking for the final confirmation in a higher intermediate high.
$1292 is a small degree cycle in that it is a daily cycle low. If $1292 gets taken out then it suggests that we have a failed daily cycle in progress and that usually only happens when the intermediate cycle has topped.
So basically I want to see the smaller daily cycles continue to make higher highs and higher lows for another 2-3 months. That would give us a right translated larger intermediate cycle and it should also give gold enough time to make a higher intermediate high above $1392 and probably also above $1434.
Because it was so late in the daily cycle I think the move was destined to happen anyway. As I've noted in the past it seems like an event always seems to show up at the opportune time to trigger a DCL. This time is was the middle east conflict and the airline but if not that then something else would have triggered the rally anyway.
Gary, has Gold ever had a left translation since the 2011 high? Doesn't the low in Dec eventually need to be taken out or can gold produce THE low now in July-Aug?
The intermediate cycle that bottomed in Dec. was a left translated cycle. The fact that it still held above the previous ICL is a pretty good indication that the bear market is over.
Actually there is no doubt the bear is over. We just have to wait and see if further manipulation is going to try to rekindle it, and if so can gold fight it off.
Gary gave KER audio a listen today, we've got Gold & Silver options expiry next week on the 28th always a smash hit along with FOMC on the 30th....IF gold can continue to close above $1292 which sets up next weeks Fri close as a very important trend point that would be very bullish heading into Aug, the flip side is a Fri close below $1292 opens up another test of $1240.
You maybe frustrated at the BS trading within the pm's sector but I'd say the % returns so far in 2014 have been fantastic owning gold and silver stocks vs the bullion.......jj
I just wish the reason for the pop was not geo-political....hate that trade!...need $1347 taken out to create short covering and new longs
ReplyDelete$1292 is now the baseline......jj
Gary, do you have a PayPal link to your subscription service?
GDX has been holding above its 200 ema for nearly a month now and managed to climb right back above that price down trend line in a single day. Darn - this looks real good!
ReplyDeleteHey, that downtrend line on GDX is essentially the neck line of a bullish inverted head and shoulders.
ReplyDeleteHmmmm....I wonder how some call options on GDX would do right about now?
Any thoughts on the US Dollar index? Appears to be threatening a right translated daily cycle on day 11 - 13 or thereabouts. I would think the gold bulls would like to see it heading south right about now. ?
ReplyDeleteI don't think the dollar has to drop for gold to rise. Heck the stock market rose right along with the dollar. It's not like the dollar is actually gaining purchasing power. It's just gaining it against the euro but not against real stuff.
ReplyDeleteQuestion Gary, gave your weekending market close audio a listen at KER
ReplyDeleteYour concerned that if Gold takes out $1292 it creates a Left Translated cycle suggesting lower pricing perhaps over the next 3+ months, gold needs to take out $1347 to create a positive cycle move suggesting a bullish trend for 3+ months.
Why doesn't the failure during March... topping out at $1392 create a Left Translated cycle event as $1434 (Aug high) was not taken out suggesting at a min $1240 gold will be tested and perhaps even $1180?
Hasn't Gold already created a Failed cycle event with lower highs since $1487....$1434....$1392 and now perhaps $1346?
Thanks!......jj
The March top was a different degree top. It was an intermediate top. The fact that it failed to make a higher high was a concern but it went on to hold above the Dec. low. So we have a pattern of higher intermediate lows. We are still looking for the final confirmation in a higher intermediate high.
ReplyDelete$1292 is a small degree cycle in that it is a daily cycle low. If $1292 gets taken out then it suggests that we have a failed daily cycle in progress and that usually only happens when the intermediate cycle has topped.
So basically I want to see the smaller daily cycles continue to make higher highs and higher lows for another 2-3 months. That would give us a right translated larger intermediate cycle and it should also give gold enough time to make a higher intermediate high above $1392 and probably also above $1434.
Got it, those higher lows are supportive on the Gold chart................. $1292 hold the line!
ReplyDeleteI just hate having the driver behind the recent up tic being mainly global events as in Thurs reaction.
Fri close above $1325 would have been closing the week out on a more positive tone, the miners did suggest a positive outlook into the close.
Appreciate!.....jj
Because it was so late in the daily cycle I think the move was destined to happen anyway. As I've noted in the past it seems like an event always seems to show up at the opportune time to trigger a DCL. This time is was the middle east conflict and the airline but if not that then something else would have triggered the rally anyway.
DeleteGary, has Gold ever had a left translation since the 2011 high? Doesn't the low in Dec eventually need to be taken out or can gold produce THE low now in July-Aug?
ReplyDeleteThanks....jj
The intermediate cycle that bottomed in Dec. was a left translated cycle. The fact that it still held above the previous ICL is a pretty good indication that the bear market is over.
ReplyDeleteActually there is no doubt the bear is over. We just have to wait and see if further manipulation is going to try to rekindle it, and if so can gold fight it off.
Gary gave KER audio a listen today, we've got Gold & Silver options expiry next week on the 28th always a smash hit along with FOMC on the 30th....IF gold can continue to close above $1292 which sets up next weeks Fri close as a very important trend point that would be very bullish heading into Aug, the flip side is a Fri close below $1292 opens up another test of $1240.
ReplyDeleteYou maybe frustrated at the BS trading within the pm's sector but I'd say the % returns so far in 2014 have been fantastic owning gold and silver stocks vs the bullion.......jj