If crude oil has found a bottom (and I agree it looks like it has), I would think that bodes favorably for the entire commodity complex. Any thoughts on the updraft potential for gold (precious metals and miners, generally) if indeed crude oil has found a bottom?
My thought is that markets - such as the stock market and gold - do not necessarily change trend direction simultaneously. Perhaps the stock market continues on its insane and certainly unsustainable parabolic move, but what is quietly going on as an undercurrent is a precious metals bottom that continually creeps higher as it anticipates the demise of both stocks, bonds and the US currency. Thoughts?
Anyone here thinks that we might get a pattern similar to Nov/Dec 2013 where we get a bounce here for 2-4 weeks and then a shakeout (making a lower low) which would touch the lower trend line in the channel and then start a more lasting upward trend!!! The timing would 3-6 weeks from now which would also align with precious metals starting their rally....
Probably not 3 weeks as the daily cycle is already on day 7. A bounce for three weeks would indicate a right translated cycle and that would mean an intermediate bottom has formed. If an intermediatre bottom has formed then gold wouldn't be making a lower low in 3-6 weeks.
Perhaps I am being overly optimistic, but regarding the hit on gold the other day I see another possibility.
Honestly, it looks like a ruse to me. It does not look like it necessarily will stick.
The previous demises following hits on gold - notably April 2013 - occurred at times when the price momentum was extremely vulnerable to such an attack.
The TSI this time around does not whatsoever confirm this attack. In fact, it sports a positive divergence BUY signal. The previous attacks were perfectly timed to yield trend line break SELL signals.
Could gold continue lower? Absolutely. Anything is possible, of course.
But this time around has, for me anyway, the ear marks of a ruse. An attempt to make something happen that the market is not as easily going to agree to as with previous similar bearish attempts. Gold could drift lower for a couple of days and that would not change my view.
No easy trade here. Agreed. But the technical conditions at the moment are not fatal for gold whatsoever.
If crude oil has found a bottom (and I agree it looks like it has), I would think that bodes favorably for the entire commodity complex. Any thoughts on the updraft potential for gold (precious metals and miners, generally) if indeed crude oil has found a bottom?
ReplyDeleteMy thought is that markets - such as the stock market and gold - do not necessarily change trend direction simultaneously. Perhaps the stock market continues on its insane and certainly unsustainable parabolic move, but what is quietly going on as an undercurrent is a precious metals bottom that continually creeps higher as it anticipates the demise of both stocks, bonds and the US currency. Thoughts?
we did get into positions in miners on the chance that gold could form a short intermediate bottom here.
DeleteAnyone here thinks that we might get a pattern similar to Nov/Dec 2013 where we get a bounce here for 2-4 weeks and then a shakeout (making a lower low) which would touch the lower trend line in the channel and then start a more lasting upward trend!!! The timing would 3-6 weeks from now which would also align with precious metals starting their rally....
ReplyDeleteProbably not 3 weeks as the daily cycle is already on day 7. A bounce for three weeks would indicate a right translated cycle and that would mean an intermediate bottom has formed. If an intermediatre bottom has formed then gold wouldn't be making a lower low in 3-6 weeks.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I am being overly optimistic, but regarding the hit on gold the other day I see another possibility.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, it looks like a ruse to me. It does not look like it necessarily will stick.
The previous demises following hits on gold - notably April 2013 - occurred at times when the price momentum was extremely vulnerable to such an attack.
The TSI this time around does not whatsoever confirm this attack. In fact, it sports a positive divergence BUY signal. The previous attacks were perfectly timed to yield trend line break SELL signals.
Could gold continue lower? Absolutely. Anything is possible, of course.
But this time around has, for me anyway, the ear marks of a ruse. An attempt to make something happen that the market is not as easily going to agree to as with previous similar bearish attempts. Gold could drift lower for a couple of days and that would not change my view.
No easy trade here. Agreed. But the technical conditions at the moment are not fatal for gold whatsoever.