oh brother..here we go again..more guesses. So we could have again 1285 or lower or maybe today is the cycle low at 1320 or 1310 or maybe we go up to 1360..or maybe we go higher then collapse..and on and on. From your chart above we can have intermediate cycles lasting anywhere from 2 to 9 months..that really narrows down the possibilities. I do agree that another down move is likely..just look at the COT data...they are screaming for a sharp decline. Last few times they were at these levesl we had big and quick drops. Maybe we go down to the low 1200s just to mess with everyones minds..or maybe into the 1050 range you talked about months ago...
To complicated ...I read the same thing about the COT in Clive Maunds report . Gold had a high in Mar. at $1392 and now we hit $ 1342 and plunged already . And instead of getting higher highs we get lower highs but higher lows . That's not a good " Bull case " in my opinion . bogi
Gold is just having a normal profit taking event after rallying for 27 days. It's been exacerbated a bit by GS call for 1050 again this morning. I'm sure GS got short on Friday ahead of that call, but the intermediate trend is still up.
We are all guessing in the end but others pretend they are not. When you look at the chart of gold over the past 2 years find me someone who was able to predict most of those moves accuately.I find it amusing to see how Gary attempts to forecast evert little gyration and then out of the same breath states its a highly manipulated market. I am keeping it simple..and in for the long term..
It's because I'm now taking into account the manipulation that I have been so successful at spotting tops and bottoms for the last year and a half. It's not enough to use cycles and sentiment anymore. One now has to try to second guess when and where manipulation events will occur.
Case in point it was a pretty safe bet that the stock market would see intervention to halt the correction and a rising market this week. How did I know? Because Yellen has to address congress at the Humphrey Hawkins speech this week. She doesn't want to do that with a market in free fall.
Not guesses. Using my cycle tools. Cycles are telling me we have a correction coming. What they can't tell me is where the exact top will occur. But without a doubt there is a correction. Once the correction is clearly in progress then I will wait for a swing and buy that for another leg up. Not only did we pick the exact bottom on June 5th but it looks like the exact top on Thursday. Now we are just waiting to buy back in.
It's late in the daily cycle so the decline shouldn't last long. 4-6 days at the most. $1290 would be a 50% retracement of the recent advance.
There was a gap on the HUI chart that needed filling, filled this am at 239....although there is another gap at 228 this am's fill could be it as the miners look good with their reaction off a $30+++ gold smash, a close above 242.5 for the Hui would be a positive, it wasn't that long ago a $30 gold smashed created a wash-out miners reaction......jj
It would not surprise me to see GDX retest that price trend line that has been holding for 3 or 4 sessions. The fact that price got up through that trend line and was able to hold it for several days is a positive omen, IMHO. Once gold completes this extended daily cycle (begun following its peak of last Thursday) it looks ready to move again sharply higher.
Gold and silver down a fair bit currently at 9AM UK time.
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to see how the day closes, but as of right now it looks like gold has begun the move down into its daily cycle low.
ReplyDeleteoh brother..here we go again..more guesses. So we could have again 1285 or lower or maybe today is the cycle low at 1320 or 1310 or maybe we go up to 1360..or maybe we go higher then collapse..and on and on.
ReplyDeleteFrom your chart above we can have intermediate cycles lasting anywhere from 2 to 9 months..that really narrows down the possibilities.
I do agree that another down move is likely..just look at the COT data...they are screaming for a sharp decline. Last few times they were at these levesl we had big and quick drops.
Maybe we go down to the low 1200s just to mess with everyones minds..or maybe into the 1050 range you talked about months ago...
To complicated ...I read the same thing about the COT in Clive Maunds report . Gold had a high in Mar. at $1392 and now we hit $ 1342 and plunged already . And instead of getting higher highs we get lower highs but higher lows . That's not a good " Bull case " in my opinion .
Deletebogi
Gold is just having a normal profit taking event after rallying for 27 days. It's been exacerbated a bit by GS call for 1050 again this morning. I'm sure GS got short on Friday ahead of that call, but the intermediate trend is still up.
Delete"Maybe we go down to the low 1200s just to mess with everyones minds..or maybe into the 1050 range you talked about months ago..."
DeleteLooks to me like you're guessing.
We are all guessing in the end but others pretend they are not. When you look at the chart of gold over the past 2 years find me someone who was able to predict most of those moves accuately.I find it amusing to see how Gary attempts to forecast evert little gyration and then out of the same breath states its a highly manipulated market. I am keeping it simple..and in for the long term..
DeleteIt's because I'm now taking into account the manipulation that I have been so successful at spotting tops and bottoms for the last year and a half. It's not enough to use cycles and sentiment anymore. One now has to try to second guess when and where manipulation events will occur.
DeleteCase in point it was a pretty safe bet that the stock market would see intervention to halt the correction and a rising market this week. How did I know? Because Yellen has to address congress at the Humphrey Hawkins speech this week. She doesn't want to do that with a market in free fall.
Not guesses. Using my cycle tools. Cycles are telling me we have a correction coming. What they can't tell me is where the exact top will occur. But without a doubt there is a correction. Once the correction is clearly in progress then I will wait for a swing and buy that for another leg up. Not only did we pick the exact bottom on June 5th but it looks like the exact top on Thursday. Now we are just waiting to buy back in.
ReplyDeleteIt's late in the daily cycle so the decline shouldn't last long. 4-6 days at the most. $1290 would be a 50% retracement of the recent advance.
There was a gap on the HUI chart that needed filling, filled this am at 239....although there is another gap at 228 this am's fill could be it as the miners look good with their reaction off a $30+++ gold smash, a close above 242.5 for the Hui would be a positive, it wasn't that long ago a $30 gold smashed created a wash-out miners reaction......jj
ReplyDeleteIt would not surprise me to see GDX retest that price trend line that has been holding for 3 or 4 sessions. The fact that price got up through that trend line and was able to hold it for several days is a positive omen, IMHO. Once gold completes this extended daily cycle (begun following its peak of last Thursday) it looks ready to move again sharply higher.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTake note Traders something is afoot
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