july 10th is an important day as india releases their budget in which import duties on gold imports maybe lifted. those tariffs were placed 2 years ago, if i'm correct.
I'm a bit of a novice about this daily cycle stuff but it appears gold's current daily cycle is not only right translated, but EXTREMELY right translated. Could we say that the current gold daily cycle is more right translated than ANY daily cycle in the past year, or two years or maybe three years? And if so, what, if anything, does that suggest for gold going forward after this daily cycle concludes?
INDIAN BENCHMARK open on a positive note tracking firm global cues. Oil marketing companies are likely to remain in focus after the government hiked the price petrol by Rs Rs 1.69 per litre and Diesel by 50 paise. Stock Cash
complicated - I read Maund's update. Thank you for providing a link to it and for expressing your take on his bearish article. Probably the item that caught my eye was the Commercial's net short position. I think it reads around 131,000 net short. In the context of the chart which shows gold and the Commercial's net positioning since 2005, this does not appear particularly extreme whatsoever. Yes, gold has had a very strong move in the past month - and the commercials have predictably responded by increasing their net short position in response. That's what they always do.
I guess that looking at this in the context of price movement since 2005 (sentimenTrader's chart) and COT commercial net positioning in that time frame, it seems unreasonable to expect gold is likely to plummet below 1200. That is, Commercials are sharply reacting to recent price strength, but in historical context they are bullish - near or above the midpoint of their net positioning since 2005. Your or other's thoughts?
Never been a big fan of reading into the COT data, being a trader from both sides, long and short, short positions can be bullish if an event creates a need to cover, imo since golds top in 2011 all golds upswings have been short coverings.
I'll let the price action and chart indicators direct my long and short positions and not who's on 1st or 3rd within the Cot data, besides in todays world are we to believe the data to be true?.......jj
There will be no sharp decline, as everyone already has seen the sharp rise off the bottom and now "hopes" for one more chance to get in before the bull takes off... well the bull is just as cruel as the bear, and will leave as many people behind as possible. Sideways consolidation at best, then resumes higher early next week.
Perhaps the ECB meeting and the US employment numbers this week will create the topping phase.......jj
ReplyDeleteThat's my expectation. The dollar forms a cycle low on Thursday. Gold may top a day or two before that as it's getting late in the cycle.
ReplyDeletejuly 10th is an important day as india releases their budget in which import duties on gold imports maybe lifted. those tariffs were placed 2 years ago, if i'm correct.
DeleteI'm a bit of a novice about this daily cycle stuff but it appears gold's current daily cycle is not only right translated, but EXTREMELY right translated. Could we say that the current gold daily cycle is more right translated than ANY daily cycle in the past year, or two years or maybe three years? And if so, what, if anything, does that suggest for gold going forward after this daily cycle concludes?
ReplyDeleteINDIAN BENCHMARK open on a positive note tracking firm global cues. Oil marketing companies are likely to remain in focus after the government hiked the price petrol by Rs Rs 1.69 per litre and Diesel by 50 paise.
ReplyDeleteStock Cash
complicated - I read Maund's update. Thank you for providing a link to it and for expressing your take on his bearish article. Probably the item that caught my eye was the Commercial's net short position. I think it reads around 131,000 net short. In the context of the chart which shows gold and the Commercial's net positioning since 2005, this does not appear particularly extreme whatsoever. Yes, gold has had a very strong move in the past month - and the commercials have predictably responded by increasing their net short position in response. That's what they always do.
ReplyDeleteI guess that looking at this in the context of price movement since 2005 (sentimenTrader's chart) and COT commercial net positioning in that time frame, it seems unreasonable to expect gold is likely to plummet below 1200. That is, Commercials are sharply reacting to recent price strength, but in historical context they are bullish - near or above the midpoint of their net positioning since 2005. Your or other's thoughts?
Never been a big fan of reading into the COT data, being a trader from both sides, long and short, short positions can be bullish if an event creates a need to cover, imo since golds top in 2011 all golds upswings have been short coverings.
DeleteI'll let the price action and chart indicators direct my long and short positions and not who's on 1st or 3rd within the Cot data, besides in todays world are we to believe the data to be true?.......jj
Adding to my short positions into the close, ECB and US jobs info will take me out or ride for some % gains............jj
ReplyDeleteThere will be no sharp decline, as everyone already has seen the sharp rise off the bottom and now "hopes" for one more chance to get in before the bull takes off... well the bull is just as cruel as the bear, and will leave as many people behind as possible. Sideways consolidation at best, then resumes higher early next week.
ReplyDelete