Well Gary if its going to retrace today or Monday makes the most sense as the Weekly and Monthly chart get painted, I'd must rather see a pullback under $1300 briefly than a weak close above $1322, the pause that refreshes.
Recoil, reload and let er rip into July-Aug........jj
I just wait for a swing that occurs in the timing band for the cycle low rather than try to pick a target that the machines will probably break anyway.
I just put on a short trade using DUST, DSLV, DGLD with a stop loss exit if gold can close above $1322 which it has not done during this coil consolidation period this week........jj
I've given up on the short side. It seems like 9 times out of 10 I lose money when I try to short. Markets just go down differently than they go up and that makes it tough to profit on the short side... at least for me.
I'm not looking for a large % gain here with a short position, betting the GDX gap gets filled est $24.80 and will wait to see the reaction to the fill, long side position gains gives me some risk money. Never been short the same $ amounts as a long position.
The short worked very well coming into the July and Oct lows last year, the Dec lows was the largest short win trade, often markets retrace a lot faster than they march upwards, the toughest part is holding a short when one really wants to be long, lol.........jj
Gary, I take it your cycle work doesn't suggest target areas but time period turn points, the most logical pullback after a decent move is the 50%FIB level coming in at $1283+
These types of pullbacks can happen within 5 days as we've seen in the past many times, seems like there is plenty of time within the cycle to carry out the reversal, no?.......jj
Friday couldn't be a DCL because Wednesday was a lower low. One could maybe argue that Wednesday was the DCL but it came to early and gold hasn't broken its cycle trend line yet. So the DCL should still be ahead of us in the normal timing band for the bottom in either the first or second week of July.
Well Gary if its going to retrace today or Monday makes the most sense as the Weekly and Monthly chart get painted, I'd must rather see a pullback under $1300 briefly than a weak close above $1322, the pause that refreshes.
ReplyDeleteRecoil, reload and let er rip into July-Aug........jj
I'm ready to buy everything back but since the coil is taking too long to break upwards I'm content to wait for the next DCL for now.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary, Is your minding we should waiting for gold back to 1300 ?, it is important key ?
ReplyDeleteI just wait for a swing that occurs in the timing band for the cycle low rather than try to pick a target that the machines will probably break anyway.
ReplyDeleteI just put on a short trade using DUST, DSLV, DGLD with a stop loss exit if gold can close above $1322 which it has not done during this coil consolidation period this week........jj
ReplyDeleteI've given up on the short side. It seems like 9 times out of 10 I lose money when I try to short. Markets just go down differently than they go up and that makes it tough to profit on the short side... at least for me.
DeleteI'm not looking for a large % gain here with a short position, betting the GDX gap gets filled est $24.80 and will wait to see the reaction to the fill, long side position gains gives me some risk money. Never been short the same $ amounts as a long position.
DeleteThe short worked very well coming into the July and Oct lows last year, the Dec lows was the largest short win trade, often markets retrace a lot faster than they march upwards, the toughest part is holding a short when one really wants to be long, lol.........jj
Gary, Can it break up from coil instead of down and then move fast down before starting next daily up cycle?
ReplyDeleteIt can but it's kind of running out of time. Ideally it would have broken higher on either Thursday or Friday.
DeleteGary, I take it your cycle work doesn't suggest target areas but time period turn points, the most logical pullback after a decent move is the 50%FIB level coming in at $1283+
ReplyDeleteThese types of pullbacks can happen within 5 days as we've seen in the past many times, seems like there is plenty of time within the cycle to carry out the reversal, no?.......jj
Correct. Based on what happened with the COT this week I'm of the opinion the metals are likely to get hit next week.
Deletegold DCL Friday?
ReplyDeleteFriday couldn't be a DCL because Wednesday was a lower low. One could maybe argue that Wednesday was the DCL but it came to early and gold hasn't broken its cycle trend line yet. So the DCL should still be ahead of us in the normal timing band for the bottom in either the first or second week of July.
ReplyDeleteright!
ReplyDelete