200DMA is in play @ $24.00...last two years the last two weeks of June has been very negative towards the pm's sector...be nimble!...a 50% retracement of the recent move up comes in at $23 level.....good luck!.....jj
I'm going to suggest you are thinking too short term. Gold has formed a higher intermediate high. The odds are now good that the secular trend is ready to resume. Three years from now those that got in and held their position are going to look back and think what a great entry this was. Those that get all wrapped up in the day to day wiggles are going to miss big chunks of the move.
Well Gary we all have a tools for success and being a momentum trader I'll use your above GDX chart as an example, there is always many great % moves to be long and to be short.....I doubt very much the Swiss staircase bull market in gold has returned suggesting every dip should be bought....3 years in todays world might as well be 30....who called the recent Iraq situation?.....Trade or become road kill...if Gold closes above $1425 on a weekly basis the Bull has returned, until then, we trade the swings.....continued success to you and your followers.....jj
Based on my cycles tools I'm going to suggest that you don't have to wait till 1425 gets taken out. The fact that the intermediate low has occurred well above the last one is saying that the secular trend is resuming.
Well since the Big purge with Gold breaking down from where all the experts suggested it wouldn't happen spring 2013 @ the $1550 level gold has traded between $1180 and $1425....I certainly will do a lot of trading between now and then and the chart action suggests.
You could be 100% correct with your intermediate low call, but that's assuming THE low for gold is in and there in no proof imo of that, short covering has created every up swing since April 2013 so taking out $1425 would be very bullish suggesting the shorts are not only covering but getting long "very important"
Gold this last year++ has been making Lower Highs, that MUST change!......$1240 is Very, Very Important for both Bulls and Bears, and certainly your low call......jj
Gary, you go to tool is cycles, have you been well long the US equities since Sept 2011 based on your cycles telling you to do so.....and where does your cycle tell of a top? Yes one can say the US stock market is fed manipulated, but so is the pm's market, heck every market is manipulated so that's not an excuse not to apply cycle work to the equities as you do in gold and from what I gather your cycles work ignores, trendlines, seasonals, etc......jj
Our US Gov. Leaders take a status-quo towards economics and so my confidence of their incompetence I invest in gold and silver greatly as we are heading towards the ledge of an economic cliff!
My expectation of our leaders to pour gasoline (FREE MONEY\US DEBT) on the economic fire.
It's too late in the intermediate cycle for this to continue down into July-August.
The bottom occurred on June 3.
I will add one caveat. If we were to get another big manipulation event then we could see another leg down. But it would be an artificial move. Unfortunately I have no tools that can predict a manipulation event, and I'm of the opinion that the manipulation has probably run it's course and is done.
Wow!! now that's a huge statement, manipulation of the gold and silver market is done. Well all the chart experts, cycle experts and buy side analysts won't be able to use manipulation for their incorrect calls going forward.....it will separate the men from the wankers!......jj
Too funny , just read your comment at KER about why you don't bother following chart patterns as they suggested lower two weeks ago, yes they did and then they didn't that's when one moves with the trend unfolding. If charts aren't worth following then why bother showing your charts as examples here, just list your cycle dates and forget the charts.....= very dangerous.....your cycles didn't call the March 17th high Gary, your chart action did remember it was a big bearish candle action, correctly so.....jj
Cycles are mostly worthless for picking tops as a top can occur in either a right or left translated fashion. I spotted the top on Mar. 17th simply because I was intensely nervous about another manipulation event to break the rally. When I saw evidence of that I got the hell out of Dodge.
Since then we've seen multiple manipulation events but they aren't creating the same effect anymore and the fact that it is now becoming public information may mean it's finally going to stop or go back to just being the normal short term stuff we usually see around OPX and key economic releases.
You had mentioned about cycle in other video. If yearly up cycle will last for 12-15 weeks, what happens after that? how long would be the down cycle and then next up cycle? Is it like 12-15 weeks up -> 4-8 weeks down -> 12-15 weeks up,.....
Next week is FED event and seems they can dump it again..any thoughts?
The natural cycle duration is about 18-25 weeks. So if the advancing phase takes 12-15 then the declining part of the cycle would last about 6- 10 weeks.
If the bull is resuming like I think it is then I think we could see a test of the 200 week moving average before this intermediate cycle tops. About 1500-1550.
Great chart I think this is starting to look better for gold, and the guys from sentiment trader http://sentiment-trader.blogspot.com.au gave a pretty good renditions of this chart as well with phenominal targets, and those guys are very accurate.
Starting to look like a beautiful inverted head and Shoulder.........
ReplyDelete200DMA is in play @ $24.00...last two years the last two weeks of June has been very negative towards the pm's sector...be nimble!...a 50% retracement of the recent move up comes in at $23 level.....good luck!.....jj
ReplyDeleteGDXJ has a massive gap (hourly chart) formed June 10th between $35-$36.25.....that gap may be looking to get back filled...eventually?.....jj
ReplyDeleteI'm going to suggest you are thinking too short term. Gold has formed a higher intermediate high. The odds are now good that the secular trend is ready to resume. Three years from now those that got in and held their position are going to look back and think what a great entry this was. Those that get all wrapped up in the day to day wiggles are going to miss big chunks of the move.
ReplyDeleteWell Gary we all have a tools for success and being a momentum trader I'll use your above GDX chart as an example, there is always many great % moves to be long and to be short.....I doubt very much the Swiss staircase bull market in gold has returned suggesting every dip should be bought....3 years in todays world might as well be 30....who called the recent Iraq situation?.....Trade or become road kill...if Gold closes above $1425 on a weekly basis the Bull has returned, until then, we trade the swings.....continued success to you and your followers.....jj
DeleteBased on my cycles tools I'm going to suggest that you don't have to wait till 1425 gets taken out. The fact that the intermediate low has occurred well above the last one is saying that the secular trend is resuming.
DeleteWell since the Big purge with Gold breaking down from where all the experts suggested it wouldn't happen spring 2013 @ the $1550 level gold has traded between $1180 and $1425....I certainly will do a lot of trading between now and then and the chart action suggests.
DeleteYou could be 100% correct with your intermediate low call, but that's assuming THE low for gold is in and there in no proof imo of that, short covering has created every up swing since April 2013 so taking out $1425 would be very bullish suggesting the shorts are not only covering but getting long "very important"
Gold this last year++ has been making Lower Highs, that MUST change!......$1240 is Very, Very Important for both Bulls and Bears, and certainly your low call......jj
Gary, you go to tool is cycles, have you been well long the US equities since Sept 2011 based on your cycles telling you to do so.....and where does your cycle tell of a top? Yes one can say the US stock market is fed manipulated, but so is the pm's market, heck every market is manipulated so that's not an excuse not to apply cycle work to the equities as you do in gold and from what I gather your cycles work ignores, trendlines, seasonals, etc......jj
DeleteCompared to coal companies, ANR, CLF, PAL and MCP, GDX should be manipulated to lower price
ReplyDeleteOur US Gov. Leaders take a status-quo towards economics and so my confidence of their incompetence I invest in gold and silver greatly as we are heading towards the ledge of an economic cliff!
ReplyDeleteMy expectation of our leaders to pour gasoline (FREE MONEY\US DEBT) on the economic fire.
imho, THE bottom hasn't been reached yet
ReplyDeleteWait for july-august 2014 ;)
Imo THE bottom will be June-July 2015
DeleteIt's too late in the intermediate cycle for this to continue down into July-August.
DeleteThe bottom occurred on June 3.
I will add one caveat. If we were to get another big manipulation event then we could see another leg down. But it would be an artificial move. Unfortunately I have no tools that can predict a manipulation event, and I'm of the opinion that the manipulation has probably run it's course and is done.
Wow!! now that's a huge statement, manipulation of the gold and silver market is done. Well all the chart experts, cycle experts and buy side analysts won't be able to use manipulation for their incorrect calls going forward.....it will separate the men from the wankers!......jj
DeleteToo funny , just read your comment at KER about why you don't bother following chart patterns as they suggested lower two weeks ago, yes they did and then they didn't that's when one moves with the trend unfolding. If charts aren't worth following then why bother showing your charts as examples here, just list your cycle dates and forget the charts.....= very dangerous.....your cycles didn't call the March 17th high Gary, your chart action did remember it was a big bearish candle action, correctly so.....jj
DeleteCycles are mostly worthless for picking tops as a top can occur in either a right or left translated fashion. I spotted the top on Mar. 17th simply because I was intensely nervous about another manipulation event to break the rally. When I saw evidence of that I got the hell out of Dodge.
DeleteSince then we've seen multiple manipulation events but they aren't creating the same effect anymore and the fact that it is now becoming public information may mean it's finally going to stop or go back to just being the normal short term stuff we usually see around OPX and key economic releases.
So the true importance of cycles are bottom indications? vs trying to apply cycles to tops, interesting.
DeleteMust say much better here at your blog than being attacked by immature hacks at KER......thanks for your time!....jj
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou had mentioned about cycle in other video. If yearly up cycle will last for 12-15 weeks, what happens after that? how long would be the down cycle and then next up cycle? Is it like 12-15 weeks up -> 4-8 weeks down -> 12-15 weeks up,.....
Next week is FED event and seems they can dump it again..any thoughts?
The natural cycle duration is about 18-25 weeks. So if the advancing phase takes 12-15 then the declining part of the cycle would last about 6- 10 weeks.
Deletegreat! thanks. And how about the daily cycle with in that big cycle?
Deletedaily cycles tend to run 18-28 days.
DeleteAnyone have a thought on what price level gold may achieve during this daily cycle? this intermediate cycle? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIf the bull is resuming like I think it is then I think we could see a test of the 200 week moving average before this intermediate cycle tops. About 1500-1550.
DeleteGreat chart I think this is starting to look better for gold, and the guys from sentiment trader http://sentiment-trader.blogspot.com.au gave a pretty good renditions of this chart as well with phenominal targets, and those guys are very accurate.
ReplyDelete