Gold has now confirmed that an intermediate bottom was set on September 26. The double bottom at $1600 is a powerful basing pattern that should generate a test of the $2000 level by sometime in December.
For reasons covered in the nightly reports I don't really expect gold to push much above the $2000 level during this particular intermediate cycle.
Also for reasons discussed in the nightly reports I think the mining stocks, which have been unloved for the last year, are probably going to be the recipients of most of the hot money during this intermediate cycle. Both silver and gold have already generated parabolic, or semi parabolic moves. I think it's time for a big rally in the mining stocks over the next four or five months.
After the closing bell on Friday, the CME is announcing margin hike again, this is going to raise hell in the commodities market; there will be a fire sale on PMs. Sunday night futures market.
So ...EOY rally..in gen stocks and lower USD....and more importantly the miners are finally set to rally. Gold looks good for this intermediate period. Holding up well in the "loss of confidence" crisis. Keep an eye on money flows from EUR. The beneficiaries....PM's and US Treasuries. I very much favour the scenario outlined (which I alluded to in a previous post on SMT 26.10) Seems like the inevitable money printing on both sides of the Atlantic is being factored into the PM's and miners. That elastic band that you refer to so often, is about to be be released in favour of miners. The only negative for PM's is that commodities are in a downward trending channel and not looking to break to the upside. A possible drag.
I don't see miners taking off . Big funds don't want it, small investers either invest in physical metal or dedicated PM ETF-s. Not only are individual miners much more risky than investing in physical metal itself but they also don't represent any hedging value since they more or less move along with the rest of the stock market, only worse.When stock market goes up miners go up less, when stock markets goes down miners fall harder. Not to mention that true PM fans, like myself,don't want to have anything to do with any paper and consider Novagold same like Netflix is. I believe there has been shift in perception of miners, where people don't see them any longer as being representative of gold and silver value, but just another paper on stock exchange that carries much more risk while underperforming the metal itself.
After the closing bell on Friday, the CME is announcing margin hike again, this is going to raise hell in the commodities market; there will be a fire sale on PMs. Sunday night futures market.
ReplyDeleteActually the CME is lowering margin requirements so the transfer of clients from MF global accounts doesn't roil the markets.
ReplyDeleteYou might want to take everything that gets posted on the conspiracy blogs with a grain of salt. More often that not they leap before they look.
Yep, Toby is right
ReplyDeleteSo ...EOY rally..in gen stocks and lower USD....and more importantly the miners are finally set to rally.
ReplyDeleteGold looks good for this intermediate period.
Holding up well in the "loss of confidence" crisis.
Keep an eye on money flows from EUR. The beneficiaries....PM's and US Treasuries.
I very much favour the scenario outlined (which I alluded to in a previous post on SMT 26.10)
Seems like the inevitable money printing on both sides of the Atlantic is being factored into the PM's and miners. That elastic band that you refer to so often, is about to be be released in favour of miners.
The only negative for PM's is that commodities are in a downward trending channel and not looking to break to the upside. A possible drag.
will silver be along for the ride?
ReplyDeleteI don't see miners taking off .
ReplyDeleteBig funds don't want it, small investers either invest in physical metal or dedicated PM ETF-s. Not only are individual miners much more risky than investing in physical metal itself but they also don't represent any hedging value since they more or less move along with the rest of the stock market, only worse.When stock market goes up miners go up less, when stock markets goes down miners fall harder.
Not to mention that true PM fans, like myself,don't want to have anything to do with any paper and consider Novagold same like Netflix is. I believe there has been shift in perception of miners, where people don't see them any longer as being representative of gold and silver value, but just another paper on stock exchange that carries much more risk while underperforming the metal itself.
I don't buy individual miners, only ETF's.
ReplyDeleteWhen i was talking about miners not taking off, i was thinking GDX,HUI as well, not only individual companies.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we shall see soon enough