More often than not we as investors get caught up in the day-to-day action and never take the time to step back and look at the big picture. Today I'm just going to post some long term charts with appropriate annotations.
We just saw the second municipality go bankrupt today (Harrisburg Pennsylvania).
The cancer has begun to grow in the municipal market. It will end in a crisis just like the real estate market. It began in subprime and spread until it eventually contaminated all levels of the real estate market.
By the way, why IBB? Are there any other sectors that are in similar decade long consolidation? As the broad stock indexes are also in a secular bear/long consolidation, are there any other sectors possessing a stronger relative strength? Much like what the tech stocks & consumer brands did in the last cyclical bull.
For your opinon, what level the $HUI should be if the bullion price were surpassed $2300 per ounce? $HUI at 400? 600? or 1000?
I think your "future chart analysis" this time has a great possibility to become ture because:
1). US and some EU countries debt, deficit crisis are far away to be resolved despite the stock markets were rallying big percentages in the past two weeks.
2). From the silver and oil's charts, we can find this is a bear market rally.
3). From the chart analysis, US$ has a long way to go to its top, EURO, Canadian dollar will fall to a much lower level.
I can beat Emmon on this side.
ReplyDeleteAny reason the muni market is still holding up so well compared to the others you posted?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MUB
Thanks for the BP Gary.
We just saw the second municipality go bankrupt today (Harrisburg Pennsylvania).
ReplyDeleteThe cancer has begun to grow in the municipal market. It will end in a crisis just like the real estate market. It began in subprime and spread until it eventually contaminated all levels of the real estate market.
Thanks for the great post, Gary!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, why IBB? Are there any other sectors that are in similar decade long consolidation? As the broad stock indexes are also in a secular bear/long consolidation, are there any other sectors possessing a stronger relative strength? Much like what the tech stocks & consumer brands did in the last cyclical bull.
It's not so much about a consolidation as it is about the potential to change the way the world progresses.
ReplyDeleteWe need a new industry to create jobs for all those that were lost during the tech and real estate bubble implosions.
Gary, your free info is better than other sites paid info. Nice big picture summary.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteFor your opinon, what level the $HUI should be if the bullion price were surpassed $2300 per ounce? $HUI at 400? 600? or 1000?
I think your "future chart analysis" this time has a great possibility to become ture because:
1). US and some EU countries debt, deficit crisis are far away to be resolved despite the stock markets were rallying big percentages in the past two weeks.
2). From the silver and oil's charts, we can find this is a bear market rally.
3). From the chart analysis, US$ has a long way to go to its top, EURO, Canadian dollar will fall to a much lower level.
The price will be whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
ReplyDeleteNEW POST
ReplyDeleteExpect a 20% Year End Market Rally! Says JPM’s Tom Lee
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/expect-20-end-market-rally-says-jpm-tom-131844848.html?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=