However, the action in the dollar and silver this week have probably taken the parabolic phase of this C-wave off the table. Rather than the normal sharp spike up it appears that this C-wave is going to end with a more modest move than prior C-waves. That being said it did last much longer and gain just as much above the prior C-wave top as any other C-wave. So in terms of duration and magnitude this C-wave has fulfilled every expectation.
I've noted in the past that a D-wave is a regression to the mean, profit taking event. That regression tends to be most severe when the C-wave ends with a parabolic move. Action and reaction.
However this time it appears there will likely be no parabolic rally to top the C-wave. In that case the D-wave will probably be milder than prior D-waves. As a point of reference every D-wave so far has retraced at least 62% of the prior C-wave advance.
Without the parabolic stretch I think it's likely that the impending D-wave will only retrace roughly 50% of this C-wave. If gold pushes up to a marginal new high slightly above $1600 (in the weekend report), then it will probably only drop to around $1250 which just happens to mark the upper boundary of last summer's consolidation zone.
What should follow after that is a fairly strong A-wave surge. A-waves usually test but don't break to new highs. At that point gold will enter a long sideways period to consolidate the massive gains made during the this last C-wave. During this period it will get very tough to make money in the precious metals market.
However there is still some upside potential once gold puts in the daily cycle low that is trying to form now. Great potential during the D-wave if you know how to use puts and excellent upside potential during the A-wave next fall, before the metals sink into the consolidation doldrums.
This year still has great opportunities left and of course we still have the next C-wave to look forward to in 2013. That one should make this C-wave look puny in comparison.
Does these type of waves also work with $WTIC?
ReplyDeleteOk, so all the other scenarios are declared wrong?
ReplyDeletehttp://goldscents.blogspot.com/2011/05/greatest-profit-potential-of-last.html
http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2011/04/bernanke-bottom-or-crash.html
http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2011/04/dollar-cycle.html
left right down up sell buy agq zls climb oooohhhh noooooo!!!!! what I do?
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see which (if any) of your ever oscillating writings will actually transpire. Man, whey don't you give it a rest and admit you don't really have a crystal ball.
ReplyDeleteflipping a coin would be a better bet than taking your lead from this website
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately you are trying to make money from the free blog. Subscribers knew by last week I was planning on getting out of silver. Unfortunately I got caught in the Monday morning $3 gap down.
ReplyDeleteIf my crystal ball had been working I would have known that gap was going to turn into a 30% crash and sold anyway.
But that's beside the point. you get what you pay for. If you want to know how I adapt to changing situations you aren't going to get it by just reading the blog so don't waste your time.
i am a subscriber and i know that many of your other subscribers ( although thankfully not me) were obliterated by your idiotic advice to ignore gold and focus on 2 times levered silver
ReplyDeleteIn the last year most of those people are still up 100% or more because of that idiotic advice even after the crash last week which will come back and allow people to trim losses if they were able to hold on.
ReplyDeleteIs it my fault you came late to the party? I've been beating the table on this for over two years now.
Plus I was only 50% invested in AGQ which means if one had mimicked me their account would be down 25%. Hardly wiped out.
You obviously ignored everything I've said about massive leverage. You did this to yourself and now you can't accept responsibility for your own actions.
BTW gold is the cyclical driver of the sector. Silver will follow golds lead. When gold corrects silver will correct.
ReplyDeleteYou can't trade the sector by trying to analyze silver. Silver is the follower not the leader.
i am not late to the party i have been a PM investor since 2003.i am hardly down after last week's carnage because
ReplyDelete1 i don't use leverage
2 i am uk based so primarily interested in the £ price
3 at the time of the crash i was concentrated in gold, although this was inpart due to luck rather than design
Then what are you complaining about?
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteI am following your free blog and linked it to mine.
I still believe you are pretty good, but I hate any kind of cycle tool or counting. EW counting is a red carpet to me, but you are doing something else....
Now I am reading this post and sorry, but totally confused...
Last week you encouraged all your readers to ingore the correction, later you posted about a buying opportunity now you are saying a kind of D - wave comes.
I am lost, sorry. Why do you want to tell everything in advance? Why do you predict things instead of listening?
I am considering to remove your link from my blog (http://smartvolume.wordpress.com).
Not because of the silver correction, NO.
Because a pretty unprofessional trader behavior you demonstrate, also you dont say and declare you made a mistake. This is done by weak traders dont recognize and lear from their own faults. I am sure you know Daneric. You are much better, but he calls top every month in the last 2 years and he never says a word about his mistakes, next day he just continues.
Making mistakes, making wrong trades in this business, but being blind and arrogant gives immediate punishment... not from others but from market itself.
I feel miners are undervalued and I expect there some nice money. Hopefully you'll trade that part much better!
Peace and good luck anyway and I suggest you a lesson learned activity for you.
From last nights newsletter.
ReplyDelete"Folks I'm a pretty good trader but I am going to miss calls from time to time. During the 2000-2002 bear market I got the s**t kicked out of me. In `08 I used the 20% under the 200 DMA signal and bought oil stocks expecting a strong bounce. The 20 under the 200 rule had never failed before (well maybe in the depression but I didn't have data for that). I thought is was almost a sure thing. Well the market moved almost 40% under the 200 DMA before it halted it's slide. Got my teeth kicked in. And now the great silver crash of 2011 caught me with my pants down. At some point in the future the market is going to throw me another curve ball and I'm going to end up in the dirt again. It's just part of this business. What I don't want is for people to get wiped out when one of those curves comes our way and I swing and miss."
Maybe you might want to get all the facts before you stick your foot in your mouth next time.
Blogger chma said...
ReplyDeleteOk, so all the other scenarios are declared wrong?
> seems me yes.
And if you ask me - certainly. after a shock PM had, no serious buyer will join to this arena for months now.
Blogger Gary said...
ReplyDeleteFrom last nights newsletter.
> then Gary, you are cool.
This is what I was missing.
I also got some complains but I gave this signal 2 hours after futures started to decline, also warned all my readers for gradual profit-taking.
I did not miss this rally, made a nice, 270% profit in 3 months, but I got stuck as well... I was around on 320% on the top.
still a nice sum.
I wish you the best, Gary and good luck then!
Good luck!
It's unbelievable that people are actually blaming Gary for their losses in silver last week! C'mon man! Nobody held a gun to your heads forcing you to get over-leveraged! Man up and take responsibility for your own actions!
ReplyDeleteGary is offering pretty damn good spot on insight here. It's up to you to decide if you use his analysis and how much you leverage yourselves. Nobody in the world would have predicted that silver would tank 25% in one week ... (thank you George Soros) - but then again - that's the nature of pm's in this highly volatile period we are in right now.
Just stop the whining already and stop blaming Gary for your own mistakes!
And Gary - Keep up the great work with your analysis! Many people are still way up despite last weeks
carnage.
as a subscriber to the nightly newsletter, i can attest to the fact a lot of money has been made this past year despite last week's crash. also, as Gary noted, he was in the process of getting out of silver precisely to avoid the kind of potential crash that materialized but got caught in the gap down and couldn't pull the trigger. he is only human.
ReplyDeleteGary, i think the reason subscribers are upset and somewhat troubled is that you went out of your way to dissuade us from taking huge profits by urging us not to be emotional pussies, to weather/ignore the impending correction, and shut off the TV and computer if need be because you had very little doubt that the biggest profit potential of the decade was around the corner. so many of us who were inclined to take profits refrained from doing so -- only to find out that you yourself not only succumbed to emotions and got out, but suddenly changed your tune and suggested that you might now even be shorting silver -- as though the fundamentals for PMs for which you have been making the case relentlessly (bernanke's printing press, etc) were somehow negated and thrown out the window!
I had been saying that from the minute silver broke out above $21. In real time there were many many levels where one could have convinced themselves that it was time to take profits and if they had done so they would have missed a huge part of the move.
ReplyDeleteThe unfortunate fact is that two unlikely events both occurred that prevented me from exiting in time. The first was the silver never tagged $50 during market hours and the second was the gap down on Monday.
I expected it would just be a normal daily cycle correction the same as every other daily cycle correction that we rode out. If that was the case there was no urgency to sell into the gap.
Sorry, deleted my former comment, made several typos.
ReplyDelete>Amir said...
Amir... guys are subscribing to any kind of newsletter or guru's site are not traders. Most of them inexperienced guys just follow but don't understand a word.
They don't know related risks and very emotional. If they would'nt receive a help every day they'd make terrible mistakes and losses.
This is a fact.
Also they have full trust. So if the guru tells to jump off the cliff they jump, they don't care.
When they see a nice 3-5 % rise on their accounts day after day, they simply ignore any warning signal. I dont know what happened in Gary's subscriber letter, but I am 100% sure at least he warned if silver correct, then it will correct violent.
To me, regarding to this rally I missed a 3-5 days session where silver rises between 7-10% a day ignoring any classic trading signal to sell or cool-down, then a little hesitation AND THEN all, back again, and awful drop.
Instead of it it simply went on the futures (I am a futures trader) at week-end opening, then a gap-buyup happened till opening hours, then an awful drop started and continued.
I was so stupid I just was waiting for a turn for 2 days and then made a switch to the short side.
Few contracts and close monitoring, of course, because in silver you can never know....
Give Gary a break guys -
ReplyDeleteI only read the free blog but he calls stuff pretty accurately most of the time. I'm sure that if he gave more vague predictions, you'd lambast him for that too.
As far as I can see, you need two skills to trade successfully - independent thought when reading others' views and more importantly, a trading plan (entry/exits/position size etc.) otherwise you'll get flattened.
I don't take Gary's views as gospel and niether should anyone else. Still, I'm happy to say that with Gary's input (as part of my own thought process) I've turned a £2,000 pot into £13,600 since July '10.
Keep it up Fella
I agree with Chris. I am not a subscriber and only buy gold coins and silver coins. I look at his site and other sites. I don't expect anyone to be accurate because know one can call it perfect. I would not come back to see Gary's site to look at his charts if I didn't think he was calling it as close as it could be and he is the best I have found. I keep coming back and you are doing a good job Gary
ReplyDeleteIn a secular bull market for precious metals, any one could have made money. No body needs a pompous and arrogant ass who does not know what he is saying and bad mouth any criticism.
ReplyDeleteI have been a paid subscriber once and when I saw the kind of daily report this guy writes, ( Gary or Toby or whatever is his name) I did not renew.
Stay away from such fraud stars. There are 100s of good quality finance blogs out there.
Gary, How do you factor in Government market manipulation into your Eliott Wave Charts? It looks like today is another repeat of last week...gold is tied to oil and agriculture, manipulations on one is the same as manipulation on all. It looks like the Gove't is hell bent on controlling commodities as a means of validating their Keynesian policies.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/commodity-flash-crash-part-two-senators-demand-immediate-position-limits-crude
The ABCD wave pattern in gold has nothing to do with Elliot wave and I don't buy the government manipulation nonsense.
ReplyDeleteI have yet to have anyone give me a plausible reason for why the government gives a spit about the price of a shiny yellow metal.
Every since Nixon took us off the gold standard the US has been free to print as many dollars as we like. At that point gold became irrelevant.
Ok, so that "transition to D wave" stuff just survived 2 days. Next please....
ReplyDeleteNow the Shanghai Gold Exchange has just announced it is hiking silver margin to 19% as well as the price limit on gold to 13%. Central banks will not allow speculators to reap profits on PM's while they attempt to print their way to prosperity.
ReplyDelete