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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

TOO LATE TO CHASE

Today will mark the 15th day of the current daily cycle in gold. Gold has been up 13 out of the last 15 days. It's getting overbought.
 Usually the daily cycle runs about 20 -25 days. At this point it is probably too late to chase the move.
 

There are also a couple of gaps on the GLD chart that need to be filled. The first one is filling today. I expect both will get filled at some point during the coming cycle correction.

If you already have a position then just hang on. If you still need to add I would advise waiting till we see the dip down into the cycle low.

Whatever you do don't short. Remember in bull markets the surprises come on the upside. I think the recent 3 week move has demonstrated that, probably painfully so to anyone who fell victim to the technical chart pattern and shorted the break of the May pivot.
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6 comments:

  1. Sing @HKAugust 18, 2010 at 9:30 AM

    Thank you Toby!

    I just follow Toby suggestion and take my profit at 1227 from 1169. That's really good for me and I will wait a correction and back in my position then wait gold to 1300-1400.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousAugust 18, 2010 at 7:49 PM

    Did Toby say take profit?? I saw juniors surge upward with volume and am hanging on for the ride (these bulls buck you off , then run away often). See GBG, UXG, AZK, RBY for price w/volume strength. Buy the dips , ride the bull if signs are right, but yes, Toby did say too late to chase this leg, there will be a pullback and another buy! Thx Toby for great charts...Robert

    ReplyDelete
  3. TobyAugust 18, 2010 at 7:52 PM

    Make no mistake now is not the time to tinker with your core position. If you have some margin you might consider lightening up in that area but I wouldn't risk losing my core positions, not this early in the intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousAugust 20, 2010 at 2:51 AM

    Dear Toby,
    Do you expect Gold to pulback again to 1156 level or you expect just a short correction within a week or two.
    Ivan

    ReplyDelete
  5. TobyAugust 20, 2010 at 3:48 AM

    No I doubt it will get anywhere near that level. I'm kind of expecting $1200 to act as support.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousAugust 20, 2010 at 3:59 AM

    Dear Toby,
    I want to subscribe for your analize. I am interested mostly in Gold and some stocks as well. Is it possible to send me some old sample of your day analize to see how it is looks like? Do I receive your day gold analize every day? How is it works?
    My email is markdirector1@yahoo.com
    Ivan

    ReplyDelete

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