tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post922456730498835445..comments2023-07-14T07:39:33.346-07:00Comments on Gold Scents: POTENTIAL RUNAWAY MOVE DEVELOPINGToby Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-35455954065108107822010-04-21T21:14:38.740-07:002010-04-21T21:14:38.740-07:00You look at the chart in 2007 and you will notice ...You look at the chart in 2007 and you will notice during the run-away move, the RSI would still go down to RSI=50 periodically. This move since Feb just didn't afford anyone an opportunity to enter. Its RSI just consistently stays above 70, contrary to the run-away move in 2007.White Bearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10937766667428779247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-87062629487791614412010-04-21T19:54:35.915-07:002010-04-21T19:54:35.915-07:00Without a crystal ball there is no way of knowing ...Without a crystal ball there is no way of knowing what's going to happen. The 06/07 runaway move tacked on 200 points in 7 months. <br /><br />So far this rally has gained about 150 in a little over 2 months, although it remains to be seen whether it will develop into a runaway move. We would need to see the market move to new highs first and it hasn't done that yet.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-17012912144574685032010-04-21T19:51:43.684-07:002010-04-21T19:51:43.684-07:00I meant if you start from a couple of months in......I meant if you start from a couple of months in...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-88057166535436354782010-04-21T19:50:18.049-07:002010-04-21T19:50:18.049-07:00So no parabolic blow-off in the SP500 then? Your ...So no parabolic blow-off in the SP500 then? Your chart shows a grind upwards of only 100 points over several months.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-24163687272987354722010-04-21T11:05:35.200-07:002010-04-21T11:05:35.200-07:00Actually I suggested going to cash because sentime...Actually I suggested going to cash because sentiment had reached bullish extremes. 95% of the time that kind of sentiment leads to a significant correction. It certainly did in January. But if the market decides to move into a runaway type advance then all bets are off and like I said we can probably just throw out all of our tools as none of them work during these kind of moves. They certainly didn't in 06/07.<br /><br />Gold was just due for a move down into a daily cyclew low. I would say the decline from $1170 to $1124 qualifies.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-14400920165697968932010-04-21T09:54:26.162-07:002010-04-21T09:54:26.162-07:00I think anyone who listens to your prognostication...I think anyone who listens to your prognostications needs their head tested. You were predicting a correction to the Dow the first week of March, and its up at least 450 points since then. Last week you were predicting a gold sell-off and tonight its at $1148/oz. I think the best plan is to do exactly the opposite of what you suggest. Take a long holiday if you have any dollar left and go swim in the sea somewhere hot, then when you get back get a job flipping burghers somewhere, away from a computer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-44607396148659729092010-04-21T09:53:27.781-07:002010-04-21T09:53:27.781-07:00No if the market moves into a runaway move then it...No if the market moves into a runaway move then it appears the standard correction size will be about 25 to 40 points.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-14080455427414159402010-04-21T09:43:31.120-07:002010-04-21T09:43:31.120-07:00I hope not, as I am waiting patiently for a correc...I hope not, as I am waiting patiently for a correction in order to deploy the rest of my capital.<br /><br />The historical chart you post doesn't show many opportunities to get long, does it?PokerBratnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-67945712385319696702010-04-21T06:34:10.041-07:002010-04-21T06:34:10.041-07:00when it comes to the currency markets, i'd say...when it comes to the currency markets, i'd say that it is in the best interests of the dollar powers to undermine the euro via various means (see greece, etc.), making the dollar the less ugly of the sisters. Eventually, people will realize that they are ALL ugly!facthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06433718032259980514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-76002081751825962022010-04-21T06:18:19.032-07:002010-04-21T06:18:19.032-07:00I think AAPL proved they are selling a lot of some...I think AAPL proved they are selling a lot of somethings :)<br /><br />The companies not actually selling anything period died in 2000-2002.<br /><br />This cyclical bull will die eventually but it will expire when the excesses come back to bite us in the ass. In 2000 those excess were in the tech sector - too many companies with no earnings and no chance of ever having any earnings.<br /><br />In 2007 it was a bursting of the real estate and credit bubble that brought the party to an end.<br /><br />Now the excess is in the currency markets. At some point we are going to see something break and that will signal the beginning of the end for this cyclical bull.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-12448765447143714052010-04-21T06:10:35.381-07:002010-04-21T06:10:35.381-07:00a simplistic, but reasonable rationale for a melt-...a simplistic, but reasonable rationale for a melt-up: <br />the bond market is way bigger than the stock market. If confidence in the bond market fails, tons of capital will be available to move into either stocks or cash. Thus the motivation will be more to run from bonds rather than running toward stocks. But stocks are preferred to one's mattress (for now!).<br /><br />(of course, eventually the shortcomings of investing in companies that don't sell anything will eventually be realized, but that is for a later date.)facthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06433718032259980514noreply@blogger.com