tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post6875051903176111362..comments2023-07-14T07:39:33.346-07:00Comments on Gold Scents: S&P 950...NOT SO FASTToby Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-70948296530225020512010-09-09T08:51:01.655-07:002010-09-09T08:51:01.655-07:00What happened to my post? What if ben drops money ...What happened to my post? What if ben drops money in peoples' back yards and they use it to pay down debt and then hide the rest for later on? Social mood is the issue, and Ben's PhD will be revoked when we realize that Japan printed Yen 'til the cows came home and still got deflation. Liquidation of malinvestment must occur as all of the bad decisions were bad and cannot be made good through hyperinflation. Keynes was wrong and Von Mises was right. I've owned gold from '03, and those of us from then can withstand a drop back to $900 or so. Can you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-1040069688882362462010-08-30T15:04:55.597-07:002010-08-30T15:04:55.597-07:00Just a bad print.Just a bad print.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-27740922327853837282010-08-30T15:03:19.038-07:002010-08-30T15:03:19.038-07:00Toby,
Did you see where the Sept contract for gol...Toby,<br /><br />Did you see where the Sept contract for gold spiked to 3401.50 before closing at 1237.10? <br /><br />Do you think is was a signal opposite the DOW flash crash of a few months ago, or just a some glitch?<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=Aj3ahJxBU_ACahwJ6fRGsE27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE4MnJrOW9mBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDbWFya2V0U3VtbWFyeUluZGljZXMEc2xrA2dvbGQ-?s=GCU10.CMX<br /><br /><br />direct link: http://i38.tinypic.com/2nw0h9y.pngAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-16386518240489223192010-08-30T13:59:21.971-07:002010-08-30T13:59:21.971-07:00Well of course stocks can rally 30 points and fizz...Well of course stocks can rally 30 points and fizzle I just have no way of knowing before hand. If they do and then drop below the July lows I'm going to call the bear market.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-70010091365966370132010-08-30T13:54:11.675-07:002010-08-30T13:54:11.675-07:00the move from 666 up was QE1 and it ended in April...the move from 666 up was QE1 and it ended in April<br /><br />That move is finito.<br /><br />Now, since April<br /><br />many expected liquidity from the FED to bid stocks up, so far, they have been wrong, money has ignored equity and has gone to bonds (big chunk), and gold (smaller chunk)<br /><br />Bernanke told the world what he wanted to do, and smart money went to bond, as simple as that, short term maybe, but we'll know only later<br /><br />Gold, of course is a beneficiary of all the items on Bernanke's manifesto of hi battle plan against price depreciation<br /><br />The fact that a stock cycle may or may not be due matters little, where money goes matters more, a cycle low may produce only a left translated limp bounce of 30-40 points and fizzle<br /><br />Some other catalyst than just the expectation for a cycle low is needed to power equities higher<br /><br />Hey, it may happen tomorrow and coincide with your cycle and Boom!<br /><br />But just the cycle low being expected is not enough<br /><br />You always say, stocks just don't move because of some line on the chart, and right you are<br /><br />I am saying, stocks just don't move because of some cycle being due<br /><br />More is needed, money is neededAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-70768607952966722432010-08-30T13:31:20.246-07:002010-08-30T13:31:20.246-07:00Stocks have gone from 666 to 1049. I would have to...Stocks have gone from 666 to 1049. I would have to think the liquidity has helped stocks. Now whether or not stocks have begun another leg down in a bear market hasn't been decided yet. I would need to see a Dow Theory sell signal before I could definitively say yes they have. Until that happens stocks are just in no man's land.<br /><br />But stocks are due to move out of a daily cycle bottom. I tend to belive that bottom came on Friday but there's nothing that says it couldn't drag out till the jobs report this Friday. Either way I just have no desire to get tangled up in the stock market.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-29368176736299652092010-08-30T13:26:04.484-07:002010-08-30T13:26:04.484-07:00You had thought liquidity from FED (if any) would ...You had thought liquidity from FED (if any) would help the equity market, so far, it's helped the bond market<br /><br />It's good you do not play stocks, being wrong (So far) on intermediate term money flow<br /><br />It's good you play goldies, because you are right on longer term tred of money flow<br /><br />It's perhaps a miss you do not play bonds, because that was the very obvious intended target of the shorter trend of money flow -- that was the free money Bernanke almost promised in AugustAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-74946623030365331032010-08-30T12:23:54.070-07:002010-08-30T12:23:54.070-07:00Actually the very short term calls for some minor ...Actually the very short term calls for some minor weakness after the Friday reversal but the next three weeks should be positive.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-73955166231522690812010-08-30T12:21:25.610-07:002010-08-30T12:21:25.610-07:00Shouldn't there be follow through to the upsid...Shouldn't there be follow through to the upside if we were going up, after the big "breakout" on Friday.<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-38163465003105844472010-08-30T11:13:26.510-07:002010-08-30T11:13:26.510-07:00Totally agree, that is the only real safe place. ...Totally agree, that is the only real safe place. If you think 1040 will hold, right here is the place to buy the S&P.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-3656072736627732252010-08-30T10:36:40.805-07:002010-08-30T10:36:40.805-07:00I like the safety net of a secualr bull market. Th...I like the safety net of a secualr bull market. The only place that exists in in the precious metals market. So I'll stick to that for the time being.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-483752540950340852010-08-30T10:29:06.418-07:002010-08-30T10:29:06.418-07:00That says quite a bit...like a broker that doesn&#...That says quite a bit...like a broker that doesn't invest in stocks, but other asset classes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-45148897470568247262010-08-30T10:05:29.261-07:002010-08-30T10:05:29.261-07:00Luckily for me I don't waste time or capital t...Luckily for me I don't waste time or capital trading the stock market :)Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-66383255757836133602010-08-30T10:01:46.749-07:002010-08-30T10:01:46.749-07:00Toby,
The arguements sound great, but there are ...Toby, <br /><br />The arguements sound great, but there are just as many that point to a bigger move down first. So it is good to understand both camps and have tight stops whichever direction you are trading. I think above 1080 is all clear, but below 1050 is looking 900 to 950 straight in the face.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-77994597574823753072010-08-30T09:09:04.289-07:002010-08-30T09:09:04.289-07:00It is possible although I've found the downsid...It is possible although I've found the downside break to be a lot more reliable than an upside.<br /><br />The fact that the dollar is now entering the timing band for a cycle low doesn't bode well for a sustained rally at this point.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-42451335008479108132010-08-30T09:04:21.676-07:002010-08-30T09:04:21.676-07:00in reviewing your terminology , t4 'crawling&#...in reviewing your terminology , t4 'crawling'...could that be whats occuring with the dollar for the past few days? Does it imply anything to you if it is with regards to gold? The assumption would be that it would break upward and resume its climb. thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-23549520129855024032010-08-29T09:32:41.202-07:002010-08-29T09:32:41.202-07:00Guys... Just buy gold and silver. Don't worry ...Guys... Just buy gold and silver. Don't worry about all the tecnicals. Think gold and hold. Be asleep at the switch and let's ride this thing not only for profits, but mainly for our survival! Physical metals for the base position and the mining stocks for profit. Think 2000 on the HUI.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-49359278763960539432010-08-28T15:52:47.058-07:002010-08-28T15:52:47.058-07:00One thing missing on the bullish take is the remar...One thing missing on the bullish take is the remarkable collapse of sentiment as shown in almost all of the surveys. We are set up for not just an up market but a commodity mania.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10527759536697328866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-50154602316071449792010-08-28T13:22:57.090-07:002010-08-28T13:22:57.090-07:00Thanks...That sounds reasonable, but my trading is...Thanks...That sounds reasonable, but my trading is affected by volume analysis...break outs on lighter volume fail almost always , and DO retest all of the time. Maybe after Labor day the volumes will pick up, summer vacation will be over... Your report was great , convincing..thx again, RobertAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-2583229023926042222010-08-28T13:01:25.739-07:002010-08-28T13:01:25.739-07:00The market is waiting to see if the brekaout is go...The market is waiting to see if the brekaout is going to occur this time.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-39143235105789419702010-08-28T12:34:38.051-07:002010-08-28T12:34:38.051-07:00Toby , this was a GREAT report for subscribers (...Toby , this was a GREAT report for subscribers (only about 1/3 is shown here). Details on Gold, Hui , Gdx , and Dollar were excellent.<br /> Any opinion on your GDX chart wkly...showing volumes...did you notice that the Aug 2010 part of that chart actually shows it climbing with less than 1/2 the volume it had a previous time it climbed up to this point in april/may 2010 and Nov 2009. See a 1yr wkly chart. Thx RobertAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-87492052826516914012010-08-28T12:23:43.141-07:002010-08-28T12:23:43.141-07:00Hey toby..... U da man!Hey toby..... U da man!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-44993424830086829602010-08-28T09:42:35.934-07:002010-08-28T09:42:35.934-07:00Hi,
I really enjoy reading your blog. If you dont...Hi,<br /><br />I really enjoy reading your blog. If you dont mind I'd like to put your link into mine. Please make a read<br /><br />http://smartmoneyvolume.blogspot.com/<br /><br />and let me know if you agree.<br /><br />Thanks a lot!saladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05694592031978039092noreply@blogger.com