tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post571005055368830281..comments2023-07-14T07:39:33.346-07:00Comments on Gold Scents: CARPE AURUMToby Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-29856251378588111892010-07-21T19:04:22.250-07:002010-07-21T19:04:22.250-07:00The multiple identities takes away from the reliab...The multiple identities takes away from the reliably and the purpose of your work. Keep one character.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-59281762876561257542010-07-21T17:47:11.785-07:002010-07-21T17:47:11.785-07:00My partner isn't just some guy he's a good...My partner isn't just some guy he's a good friend. He talked me into doing the site so he could market my articles. <br /><br />If it was up to me I would rather just be out climbing. Which I usually am anyway as he does all the work. I just write an article every now and then.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-67149418802102296162010-07-21T17:43:28.121-07:002010-07-21T17:43:28.121-07:00Gary's fine work stands on it's own. I do...Gary's fine work stands on it's own. I don't see why he needs the "Toby Connor" alias, just to cut some marketer in for some profits.<br /><br />Don't let marketers siphon off your talents, G. In the long run, you'll be far richer keeping what your worth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-19362435302505567032010-07-21T15:40:25.382-07:002010-07-21T15:40:25.382-07:00Toby, Chuck Cohen here. Let me say that your work ...Toby, Chuck Cohen here. Let me say that your work is really different and logical. I think one of the better sentiment clues are the number of angry bears that comment on articles that predict a rally in stocks. I'm sure this is applicable to you, also. <br /><br />There is just way too many people who couldn't spell deflation a year ago that are on the hyper-deflationary bandwagon. The market and gold are in lockstep for the foreseeable future.CHucknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-30940212726276936872010-07-20T14:24:05.671-07:002010-07-20T14:24:05.671-07:00This shoe-maker with wonk calls on the dow and s&a...This shoe-maker with wonk calls on the dow and s&p now has his butcher fingers on major gold down predictions?<br /><br />You're reversed buddy!! Upside down clown.<br /><br />This Toby guy strikes me as a major Hoodoo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-69679456831106030172010-07-20T09:10:02.752-07:002010-07-20T09:10:02.752-07:00You can find historical chartshereYou can find historical charts<a href="http://www.chartsrus.com/" rel="nofollow">here</a>Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-88301175054831428632010-07-20T09:06:39.677-07:002010-07-20T09:06:39.677-07:00I'd like to see the chart for the late seventi...I'd like to see the chart for the late seventies and early eighties...Janhttp://(optional)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-7588824074663787102010-07-20T08:07:23.915-07:002010-07-20T08:07:23.915-07:00Hey G-mon. How are you doing.Hey G-mon. How are you doing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-5683916461106493942010-07-20T07:16:32.365-07:002010-07-20T07:16:32.365-07:00The 8 year cycle is a gold cycle not a stock cycle...The 8 year cycle is a gold cycle not a stock cycle.<br /><br />You would be wasting your time trying to fit an 8 year cycle to the stock market.<br /><br />But you are exactly right cycles are worthless for trying to pick tops ... unless a cycle happens to run very deep into the timing band for a trough. In that case you can get pretty close to a top simply becuae you know the cycle is running out of time. The top has to be close in order to drop into the trough before the running out of time.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-58238359247812367732010-07-20T07:07:48.393-07:002010-07-20T07:07:48.393-07:00A major bottom every 8-8.5 years (says nothing for...A major bottom every 8-8.5 years (says nothing for when highs come by the way).....So why not tell people the 2001 low came after the market declined for 5 years.....might not make it all seem quite as bullish might it....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-495704821332191832010-07-20T06:42:40.210-07:002010-07-20T06:42:40.210-07:00Well obviously 1% is my opinion you can either agr...Well obviously 1% is my opinion you can either agree or disagree.<br />If you disagree then short gold till it moves back below $1000.<br /><br />But the 8 year cycle is not disputable. Pull up a 30 year chart of gold and you will clearly see a major bottom about every 8 to 8 1/2 years.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-16351699992982581272010-07-20T06:38:00.991-07:002010-07-20T06:38:00.991-07:00Toby said...
Hey if you think I'm wrong then s...Toby said...<br />Hey if you think I'm wrong then short gold :)<br /><br />Toby, I didn't say you were 'wrong', I said your analysis had more holes than a teabag. It is saying things like 'the chances of going below 1000 are 1%' and that 'we are in an 8 year cycle' is the reason many people deride the blogosphere.<br /><br />My gripe has nothing to do with the future direction of Gold, more what you claim to be 'analysis'.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-34260553417784288142010-07-20T06:24:36.163-07:002010-07-20T06:24:36.163-07:00Hey if you think I'm wrong then short gold :)Hey if you think I'm wrong then short gold :)Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-62589307713015962312010-07-20T06:18:50.367-07:002010-07-20T06:18:50.367-07:00I do hope you aren't trying to pass this off a...I do hope you aren't trying to pass this off as 'Research'. Regardless of what ones thoughts are on Gold, this is anecdotal claptrap.<br /><br />The chances of a move below 1000 are 1%...where did that come from?....and then you wouldn't bet on something with a 1% probability...a number you have plucked out of thin air.<br /><br />Just looking at COMEX Gold futures, they have December 1000 puts as a 10% delta worth more than $7....and that is December this year - not 2011, 2012, 2013 or wherever your cycle will finish...<br /><br />One the subject of your '8 year cycle'....is it me, or does the previous 8 year period go counter your entire existing argument?...certainly looks that way....<br /><br />There are many reasons one can to build a bullish case for Gold....this is dreadful.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-71091023087526098602010-07-20T04:34:37.412-07:002010-07-20T04:34:37.412-07:00How hard is this to understand? If we see a Dow Th...How hard is this to understand? If we see a Dow Theory sell signal then yes I will say the bear is back.<br /><br />Are you really so dense you can't understand that?Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-2018992622176056842010-07-20T04:22:58.031-07:002010-07-20T04:22:58.031-07:00Oh, Look Toby.
The market is ready for another 30...Oh, Look Toby.<br /><br />The market is ready for another 300 pt bull bounce that last say, a morning.<br /><br />lol.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-90799802936182491722010-07-19T05:57:35.380-07:002010-07-19T05:57:35.380-07:00That is exactly why shorting a bull market is a lo...That is exactly why shorting a bull market is a losing strategy. You never know when the bottom is going to come and you risk getting caught in a vioent move out of an unexpected bottom as the intermediate cycle bottoms.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-10557517509046883832010-07-19T05:51:29.736-07:002010-07-19T05:51:29.736-07:00I think the temptation is gonna be to try to wait ...I think the temptation is gonna be to try to wait for the absolute bottom of this intermediate cycle. Good luck picking it. things could turn around really fast. not only is the end of the cycle coming shortly, but seasonality is also aligning to move things upward at any time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-17505833077370218232010-07-19T04:54:55.306-07:002010-07-19T04:54:55.306-07:00I do think gold will go to $1400 - $1500 during th...I do think gold will go to $1400 - $1500 during the next leg up into the high demand fall seasonTobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-64589392723595080932010-07-19T01:12:06.244-07:002010-07-19T01:12:06.244-07:00Thanks for your work.
So you think we will see G...Thanks for your work. <br /><br />So you think we will see Gold at roughly 1500 USD after the next up cycle?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-1043862684769726992010-07-18T19:57:23.560-07:002010-07-18T19:57:23.560-07:00Gold is getting very deep in the intermediate cycl...Gold is getting very deep in the intermediate cycle so yes we ar going to find a bottom sometime soon and then we will begin the next leg up which should last another 15 to 20 weeks.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-9108988308253963982010-07-18T19:54:59.340-07:002010-07-18T19:54:59.340-07:00So gold could go down a little bit more to make a ...So gold could go down a little bit more to make a near term low, then bounce up to start another up cycle?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com