tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post4822637982315815997..comments2023-07-14T07:39:33.346-07:00Comments on Gold Scents: STILL JUST A BABY BULLToby Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-79022331786107738642010-07-27T22:47:57.620-07:002010-07-27T22:47:57.620-07:00Really good info, but it doesn't take into acc...Really good info, but it doesn't take into account real inflation and market manipulation. If using real inflation (shadowstats.com) and manipulation by the central banks and JPM, the price of gold would be at $7200.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-51933216650338728812010-06-15T00:46:17.797-07:002010-06-15T00:46:17.797-07:00Like wine, owner create a market by buying themsel...Like wine, owner create a market by buying themselves, hence push price up.<br />You can do that with coffee too!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-46939375580031114942010-06-14T12:32:27.010-07:002010-06-14T12:32:27.010-07:00any reason why central banks are currently buying ...any reason why central banks are currently buying gold?French gold coinshttp://frenchgoldcoins.infonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-91239056822982922212010-06-14T07:03:19.405-07:002010-06-14T07:03:19.405-07:00Folks just use a little common sense. If the gover...Folks just use a little common sense. If the government is manipulating the gold market why do shorts increase as gold is making new highs and decrease when gold pulls back?<br /><br />That is the normal pattern of an industry that is hedging production. Specifically most of the commercial shorts are miners hedging their production forward.<br /><br />If the governement really wanted to manipulate price we would see the opposite happen. As price declined the manipulators wouldn't take their shorts off they would pile them on to drive price down.<br /><br />Don't forget shorts have to be covered at some point. If someone is piling on naked shorts that isn't going to drive price down other than temporarily. Once those shorts are covered it will drive a huge surge higher so contrary to what the conspiracy theorist would like to belive that naked short argument is a gigantic bullish factor not a negative one.<br /><br />Folks all this conspiracy crap is just a scam GATA has pulled on a gullible retail public so they never have to accept responsibility for their mis-timed calls. Anytime gold doesn't do what they predict thay just blame it on some neferious cartel. It's one of the oldest tricks in the book.<br /><br />Come on folks just a little commone sense is all it takes.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-45924280564905893292010-06-14T06:40:40.868-07:002010-06-14T06:40:40.868-07:00Arnold Bock had this to say, and I fully agree:
&...Arnold Bock had this to say, and I fully agree:<br /><br />"...The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a major hearing which blew the doors off the bullion metals trading markets - the "sleeper" which I predict will be viewed retrospectively as the gold price liberation event.<br /><br />We all knew JP Morgan Chase had been manipulating the metals markets on behalf of the FED and other central banks and this event proved it! The hearing (specifically Jeff Christensen’s statements) inadvertently confirmed that trading has been occurring using naked shorts/no hedging and that there was little bullion (only about one ounce of metal for 100 ounces of a trade) backing up such trades should the holders ask for it rather than cash or roll their futures into other futures paper. This revelation was much worse than even critics, such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), had expected."Silver Dollar Coinshttp://silverdollarcoinvalue.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-87647236275504826482010-06-14T06:18:47.536-07:002010-06-14T06:18:47.536-07:00The historic average is about 20-25 oz. of silver ...The historic average is about 20-25 oz. of silver to one oz. of gold. The ratio tends to spike during C-wave tops. I'm looking for a top to this C-wave sometime this year so I expect the ratio to move down under 50 at that time.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-46798966759257645852010-06-14T05:41:20.341-07:002010-06-14T05:41:20.341-07:00What price ratio do you see gold and silver tradin...What price ratio do you see gold and silver trading at over the next 6, 12, and 18 months? Is this a good time to invest in silver bullion as well?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-19272091103531432442010-06-12T05:21:02.771-07:002010-06-12T05:21:02.771-07:00It depends on what kind of inflation. During the 7...It depends on what kind of inflation. During the 70's we had high inflation and it destroyed the economy the stock market cycled through large swings just like we have been doing since 2000.<br /><br />In a hyperinflation we could see the stock market go up to 50,000 but it wouldn't mean anything as a loaf of bread would cost you $1000.<br /><br />Anyone storing their wealth in paper money will have it destroyed in a hyperinflationary environment.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-78777572500595358712010-06-12T02:00:55.251-07:002010-06-12T02:00:55.251-07:00May I have a question:
When we have inflation, wha...May I have a question:<br />When we have inflation, what will happen to the stock market and house price ?<br /><br />Will they go much higher just like everything else or will they crash ?<br /><br />Thank you so much.<br /><br />MichelleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-49024158486381846922010-06-09T14:42:27.332-07:002010-06-09T14:42:27.332-07:00Its for that very reason that gold will continue i...Its for that very reason that gold will continue in it's bull market. We are running up unsustainable debt. The only way we will be able to service that debt is to print money.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-24361960578619330652010-06-09T14:35:37.814-07:002010-06-09T14:35:37.814-07:00comparing oil to gold is wrong-period.
"And n...comparing oil to gold is wrong-period.<br />"And now, for the topping on the cake. The precious metals markets are infinitely smaller than the stock market, real estate markets or energy market. That means it won't take anywhere near as much money to drive these markets to incredible heights."<br /><br />And it would not take much to crash the market in gold either!!<br />duh!<br />the crashes in markets are ALL related to the payments for the continuous wars, on the planet and internally.<br />the Republic of U-knighted states can NOT afford the wars for ROYAL oil-it will crash EVERYTHING.<br />and it is.<br /><br />the war mongering fever that you ALL have (not just the talking heads on foxnoose or msnbc), is the real problem, and the avoidence is the cause of the mis information, spit on us all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-91344694455368473602010-06-08T18:45:49.719-07:002010-06-08T18:45:49.719-07:00I am and have been a true believer in precious met...I am and have been a true believer in precious metals, since I was too young to remember and plucking the last 40% JFK's form old bank rolls that sat in storage. <br />But that is not to say that gold will go to the sky in the short term, in the face of a few key megatrends happening now, which include :<br />* Double Dip recession in Europe and US, and its impact to unravel asian economies, suppressing demand<br />* Fiscal stimulus ending in US and other countries<br />* Money supply still shrinking as institutions are delevering further, consumer and business loans are still tight, etc. <br />* Dollar Rallying - as people throw money into US driven by instability in the world [despite our printing presses!]<br />* massive shorting that happens weather or not by coordinated plan or not, and as mentioned Central Bank, IMF and other sales, as well as forward selling by miners.<br />*The stock market could fall further as a rash of new taxes and regulations drain profits next year, the double dip hits, etc., thereby further adjusting the dow:gold ratio<br />=> This is a small market, and the public as far as I can tell HAS been participating in it - the demand created by the ETFs - Barlcays/JPM's etc, as well as purchasing of Bullion, sell-outs of US mint coinage, etc.<br /><br />I believe the price can run up more, but I wouldn't lose a balanced and rational expectation that it may be highly cyclic in the way it does, and that you may be better off trading the peaks and valleys, as much as buying and holding. <br /><br />If your goals are to get ~8-12% per annum, you may see this bumpily over the next few years, but even major bulls/goldbugs who have put their money in, have declared gold 'locally' to be expensive. We may see, after this round of elections, grid lock in Washington, preventing the excessive stimulus, spending etc., and a restoration to fiscal discipline, as we are seeing in the states, and now Europe, by necessity.<br /><br />And don't forget, that it was our friends, the Hunt Brothers, who did conspire and drove the Silver market to the peak seen 30 years ago.Rationalitynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-55459253291224383232010-06-08T16:32:52.592-07:002010-06-08T16:32:52.592-07:00Actually the vast majority of those shorts are min...Actually the vast majority of those shorts are miners hedging their production forward.<br /><br />You need to ignore these fools at GATA and just ride the bull.<br /><br />If one is so inclined they could go to financial sense and listen to the debate between Christian and Murphy. <br /><br />Murphy came off looking like a complete idiot. The best defense he could come up with was "that's our stance and we stand by it".<br /><br />Really? What does that prove?<br /><br />Listen folks there are always going to be scam artists like Murphy in the world. The conspiracy theory nonsense allows him to blame some neferious cult anytime his calls are wrong.<br /><br />"It was JPM fault gold didn't go where I said it would"<br /><br />If the dollar was still pegged to gold then yes I would maybe buy some government tampering to keep prices aligned where they needed to be. But Nixon took us off the gold standard for that very reason so they could print unchecked.<br /><br />Now the government has no check on money supply. They can print to their hearts content (as we just saw). So there is absolutely no reason for the governement to care how high gold goes.<br /><br />On top of that central banks are now net buyers of gold. Any attempt to artificailly depress price just means that another country can scoop up our gold at cheaper prices. <br /><br />Depressing price would make no sense at all unless we actually wanted to sell our gold below market value. I don't think even governments are that stupid.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-64419754679001943432010-06-08T16:18:54.978-07:002010-06-08T16:18:54.978-07:00The manipulation of gold and silver by JPMorgan (o...The manipulation of gold and silver by JPMorgan (on behalf of the FederalReserve and USTreasury) is utterly trivial. No matter how much they lose on their shorts, they always settle in "cash" AKA fake-fiat-paper-FederalReserveNotes, which cost them ZERO to create.<br /><br />I mean really, to you who doubt any manipulation in gold and silver exists. You think the slime at JPMorgan are utterly stupid? I mean, gold and silver are obviously on a long term rise due to the irresponsible criminal financial activities of the FederalReserve and government of the USSA. In such a situation, why on earth would they want to ALWAYS, year after year after year after year after year want to hold the vast majority of short positions in gold and silver?<br /><br />The answer is blatantly obvious. Only gold and silver is money, and their utterly fraudulant criminal monopoly of creating fake-fiat-bogus-green-toilet-paper and forcing its adoption via blatantly unconstitutional [tender] laws is the most lucrative criminal scam in the history of mankind by a factor of zillions. They are the ultimate predators on mankind.<br /><br />To keep their bogus non-currency looking like a "viable" currency against REAL, HONEST money (gold and silver), they need to keep REAL money from looking like a good alternative. Finally this scam is starting to unravel, and gold is starting to look damn good to an increasing number of honest people world wide. The only reason this has taken so long is, the massive manipulation they've been practicing until now. Note that their activity is BLATANTLY ILLEGAL, because they are selling contracts to deliver PHYSICAL GOLD and SILVER, then DEFAULTING on that contract when they settle with the bogus fake-toilet-paper they and their co-conspirators print. You say JPMorgan doesn't print money? Who do you think owns the !private! FederalReserve? Answer: international megabanks, with JPMorgan at the top of the list of owners.<br /><br />Get wise to the greatest scam in the history of mankind - it is totally obvious, and the records prove it.<br /><br />Oh, and pretty good article.<br /><br />BTW, let's hope there IS a repeat of the short-term sharp downslide due to implosion of markets. That just gives us yet another chance to buy at bargain prices! Yeah!<br /><br />PS: Oh, and guess who runs the SLV ETF? That's right, JPMorgan... the same slimeballs who are ALWAYS shorting the silver market like crazy. Can you spell "confict of interest"? What do you think they'll do if FORCED to deliver the silver they owe? You got it - they'll STEAL IT from the owners/shareholders of SLV. What a scam, what a crime, what a bunch of slimeballs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-62258009443655115282010-06-08T15:18:48.226-07:002010-06-08T15:18:48.226-07:00I liked your article a lot and believe gold could ...I liked your article a lot and believe gold could go to $1400. I do not know if their will be as massive a deleveraging as in 2008 when eveything was sold to ridiculously low levels. But I do agree that this gold market will last several more years. <br /><br />Look how beautiful the chart was from August of 2009.<br /><br />http://goldstocktrades.wordpress.com/2009/08/12/gold-coiling-coil-action-may-propel-price-higher/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-63398489748630637732010-06-08T05:48:55.521-07:002010-06-08T05:48:55.521-07:00I'm not sure why you assumed the article was t...I'm not sure why you assumed the article was technical?<br /><br />I was just pointing out how far the oil bull traveled once it broke out to new all time highs and comparing gold to that market it's apparent the gold bull is still in it's infancy.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-75866873449926552442010-06-08T03:51:55.576-07:002010-06-08T03:51:55.576-07:00"Gold bulls don't end because of technica..."Gold bulls don't end because of technical levels or percentage gains"<br /><br />I thought we were talking technical levels, that is why I offered my technical view.<br /><br />Never mind.3Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716738505102837990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-3864813626753209332010-06-07T19:28:04.955-07:002010-06-07T19:28:04.955-07:00Gold bulls don't end because of technical leve...Gold bulls don't end because of technical levels or percentage gains. They end when the last buyer buys. In secular bull markets that means the public has to come into the market.<br /><br />That hasn't even begun yet.<br /><br />Also secular gold bulls don't end until the Dow:gold ratio reaches at least 2:1. (I expect this time the ratio will actually drop below 1:1) The ratio right now is 1:8. Like <br /><br />I said this is a baby bull that's still in it's infancy. It just broke out to new all time highs above $850 recently. Gold hasn't even doubled that yet.<br /><br />No, this bull has a long long way to go. When 9 out of 10 billboards you see driving down the highway have to do with gold then it's getting close to the end. (Remember the housing bubble?)<br /><br />Huge bull markets always go way higher than anyone can possibly imagine. In this case $5000 would be a lowball estimate and $10,000 is certainly possible.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-4342757202192468142010-06-07T19:18:40.840-07:002010-06-07T19:18:40.840-07:00Goldscents, Bubbles happen in drives. During the o...Goldscents, Bubbles happen in drives. During the oil bubble, do you see a move from 50 to 100 (=50$), a pull back to 90$ (say bull flag) and then 90 + 50 = 140$. The next big move will be equal to the previous big move (a = c) if it is in the same direction, that is the essence.<br /><br />It is not the % that matters. It is the price during the last big leg that matters.<br /><br />Adopt the same comparison to Gold and you will see that the run actually ended. If you take the bull run from 550 to 1040 (= ~ 500), then a pull back to 690, then a run up from 690 to 1240 (=500). IMO, Gold completed the bubble or bull market, whatever you want to call.<br /><br />Unless you are looking at another 500$ move, the gold bull has ended.<br /><br />I don't trade Gold, both long and short, because of the maverick moves. This is just my observation - I would appreciate your thoughts.<br /><br />I follow your blog often and I like your thoughts.3Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716738505102837990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-35614951959995023282010-06-07T18:35:17.931-07:002010-06-07T18:35:17.931-07:00now imagine a bullish wedge that just broke to the...now imagine a bullish wedge that just broke to the upsideAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-14313050473167855562010-06-07T12:18:46.201-07:002010-06-07T12:18:46.201-07:00If manipulation was possible how in the hell did g...If manipulation was possible how in the hell did gold get to $1250 from $250?<br /><br />The secular direction of the market can not be aaltered. Any attempt to do so will only accelerate the move.<br /><br />What do you think happens when price runs over all those shorts?<br /><br />Can you say giant short squeeze?Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-9293396637986085852010-06-07T12:14:31.540-07:002010-06-07T12:14:31.540-07:00You are forgetting just one thing. Gold price can ...You are forgetting just one thing. Gold price can be easily manipulated with paper gold. JP Morgan, Bear Sterns and other central banks have been selling gold short for years. Gold that they don't have. LBMA is rumored to be leveraged 100:1. The gov't is concealing the fact that the metal exchanges (and perhaps many ETF's) are trading gold they don't have, in order to keep the price of gold down. It is very hard to win at a game when the dealer is dealing cards from the bottom of the deck and the "police" (gov't) is getting a cut of the action.<br /><br />The fifth estate, (major news networks) who are suppose to be the watch dogs, never reported Andrew Maguire's piece on the LBMA being highly leveraged. I guess they were told not to by their handlers otherwise there would be a run on the exchange.<br /><br />There was a crooked bank managed by a crooked man,<br />Who was backed by a crooked regulator sporting a crooked tan.<br />The investor trusted the crooked bank with his hard earned loot,<br />Thinking it would grow fast and strong once it had taken root.<br />It wasn't until he lost it all, did he realize he was playing a crooked game.<br />He went for help down the crooked lane to the regulator to confess his shame,<br />They laughed and snickered as he grew near,<br />And dismissed his claims without shedding as much as a tear.<br />He stood alone on the crooked sidewalk in the dead of night,<br />Fleeced by a crooked system that no one will fight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-27602308757893816692010-06-07T06:46:01.415-07:002010-06-07T06:46:01.415-07:00I don't really buy into the whole manipulation...I don't really buy into the whole manipulation theory. Financial sense just had a debate between Jeff Christian and Bill Murphy of GATA and I must say Murphy came across looking like an idiot.<br /><br />That being said nothing is going to change the path of a bull market. If there is an attempt to manipulate price all it is going to do is hasten the bull.<br /><br />What do you think happens when price runs over all those shorts?<br /><br />A massive short squeeze and rocketing price is what happens.<br /><br />So all in all it would be great for us gold bulls if there is manipulation but I really doubt it is happening. The government has much bigger things to worry about than the price of a couple of shiny metals that aren't even linked to the money supply anymore.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-19717482064899741502010-06-07T06:28:16.735-07:002010-06-07T06:28:16.735-07:00Great summary - do you have any information or com...Great summary - do you have any information or comment on statements made in Ed Steer's "Gold and Silver Daily" newsletter, June 5, 2010? Is the precious metals market being manipulated? Are "they" shorting the silver market? Ed Steer's comments follow: "The Commitment of Traders report for Friday showed that the bullion banks added a small amount to their already grotesque short position in silver. This time it was 506 contracts. The '8 or less' bullion banks are short about 324 million ounce of silver... which translates into about 175 days of world silver production. And you wonder why Ted Butler keeps screaming about the concentrated short position... and why position limits are necessary. <br />Of course, they've covered a huge pile of shorts [or added to their long position] since the Tuesday cut-off for yesterday's COT report... but regardless of that, it's still a mind-boggling number. <br />In gold, the '8 or less' bullion banks improved their net short position by a smallish 75,600 ounces of gold... but they are still net short 27.5 million ounces of gold between them. And, with the Commercial net short position [where the bullion banks hide] sitting at 26.8 million ounces... these '8 or less' bullion banks are short more than 100% of the Commercial net short position. This short position represents about 34% of world gold production held by these 8 bullion banks."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-36225524830036316662010-06-06T21:11:51.086-07:002010-06-06T21:11:51.086-07:00I agree, very tough to keep riding gold stocks her...I agree, very tough to keep riding gold stocks here. Gold bull doing its best shake-off before heading higher. Great analysis and I also dont think we will see an 08 repeat in the gold sector. Many market players a lot wiser since then.Qnoreply@blogger.com