tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post3046283794437486899..comments2023-07-14T07:39:33.346-07:00Comments on Gold Scents: STILL A CYCLICAL BULLToby Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-53795065164554567782010-05-19T16:12:25.466-07:002010-05-19T16:12:25.466-07:00As long as there is a bull market it just isn'...As long as there is a bull market it just isn't worth fighting the Fed on the short side for meager profits.<br /><br />Let's face it even if one managed to time the exact top and bottom and shorted with 100% of their portfolio during the second greatest bear market in history you still only made 58%.<br /><br />Hell a roaring bull market can do that in a matter of months.<br /><br />Shorting is a last ditch effort only when nothing else is working.<br /><br />And we do have a secular bull market that is intact.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-61621405460243520572010-05-19T12:45:05.844-07:002010-05-19T12:45:05.844-07:00I was referring to shorting the market indexes if ...I was referring to shorting the market indexes if a trend develops to the downside like in 2008. What's your analysis on the long term dollar chart, I see a base that could launch it up over 100, then maybe the bear resumes in the dollar. Until then it might be profitable to play the dollar long for maybe the next year or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-88507937891884900252010-05-19T09:45:33.438-07:002010-05-19T09:45:33.438-07:00And no I didn't hold thru that correction. I w...And no I didn't hold thru that correction. I was mostly invested in energy stocks at the time as that was the leading sector. I got out slightly before they topped.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-89115840361222833862010-05-19T09:43:44.843-07:002010-05-19T09:43:44.843-07:00That correction was the 8 year cycle low for gold....That correction was the 8 year cycle low for gold. It's probably way to early to expect this 8 year cycle to top out so I'm not particulary worried about a 40% drawdown.<br /><br />No way would I ever short a secular bull market. I learned that lesson a long time ago. That my friends is a fools trade. One never knows when the secular trend is going to resume so it's next to impossible to guess when to cover.<br /><br />If you miss and the bull comes roaring back you can lose all your meager profits in the blink of an eye.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-78297471545959308982010-05-19T09:38:21.870-07:002010-05-19T09:38:21.870-07:00Toby, are you prepared to buy and hold a 40% corre...Toby, are you prepared to buy and hold a 40% correction in gold stocks if that happens again just like in 2008? I'm not sure it will happen again, but it could. What about 2008, did you just buy and hold that correction? Why not make a little money on the downside if a nice trend forms in that direction. Also the dollar is forming a nice long term bottom on the monthly chart, looks poised to go over 100.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-7603725613204703792010-05-19T09:17:16.637-07:002010-05-19T09:17:16.637-07:00Excellent stuff. I absolutely agree here. The decl...Excellent stuff. I absolutely agree here. The decline in gold price today and perhaps a few more days will give us a fantastic opportunity to join the rallying train.Ben Lehttp://www.thelereport.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-28479802590159808312010-05-18T22:13:31.392-07:002010-05-18T22:13:31.392-07:00I think you are right about the situation. I am wa...I think you are right about the situation. I am waiting for ealy July bottom and then late August top and then sever crash. etf-gold-stocks.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-28902910613763394872010-05-18T22:06:10.026-07:002010-05-18T22:06:10.026-07:00I haven't wasted my time on the stock market i...I haven't wasted my time on the stock market in quite some time. It's much easier to just ride the one remaining secular bull market. I'm talking gold of course.Toby Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07774977275885524428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7179384084412903332.post-49128105084782261322010-05-18T21:59:48.681-07:002010-05-18T21:59:48.681-07:00How about the huge increase in volume coming into ...How about the huge increase in volume coming into the inverse etfs? I think it's safer to be out of this market until we see if this is a top or not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com