Well how was that for the start of a
new intermediate cycle? While many analysts were calling for continued
losses or even a market crash I repeatedly warned traders that an
intermediate degree bottom was coming and that markets routinely rally
violently out of those bottoms, often generating 5-8% gains in the first
12 to 15 days. This particular intermediate bottom has already gained 5%
in just the first five days.
As I've been saying all along, I
think the market will easily make new highs in the next two or three
months, possibly even significant new highs, or a test of the 2007 top
as QE3 starts to work its magic.
That being said, stocks and gold are
now due for a short-term breather. Why is that you ask, if all markets
have just formed major intermediate cycle lows? The reason has to do
with the daily dollar cycle. Friday marked the 24th day in the current
daily cycle. That cycle generally runs about 18-28 days trough to
trough. At 24 days the cycle is well into the timing band for a bottom
and bounce.
That bounce should force stocks into a short-term correction, or sideways consolidation, and gold into its next daily cycle low.
However don't be fooled by any
short-term corrective move as stocks and gold have all clearly formed
major intermediate bottoms. There are always corrective moves along the
way, nothing goes straight up, but intermediate cycles don't usually
form a final top until sometime around week 12-15. As last week was only
week 1 of a new intermediate cycle, we probably don't need to look for a
final top until sometime in February, or early March.
Coincidentally, that is when the
dollar is due to form its yearly cycle low. A yearly cycle bottom is the
most severe cyclical decline other than a three year cycle low (the
next one of those isn't due until mid-2014). I think we can safely
assume that QE3 is going to complete the head and shoulders topping
pattern for this particular three year cycle, and just like I said
months ago the dollartoppedback in the summer when the CRB index formed its final three year cycle low.
The dollar should now head generally
lower over the next year and a half with brief bear market rallies
similar to what we just experienced. This will drive an inflationary
phase that should drive all asset prices higher into mid-2013, and
commodities into a super spike in mid-2014 (this is when I expect gold
to reach its next C-wave top at roughly $4000).
By mid-2013 inflation will start to
take its toll on the economy, and stocks will stagnate and begin an
extended topping process as inflation continues to surge, similar to
what happened in 2007/08.
I think we will experience the same
phenomenon this time as QE3 eventually generates the same unexpected
consequences and spikes commodity inflation.
Traders need to be prepared next week for some kind of corrective move. Understand this is not the beginning of another
leg down, but a second chance to get positioned for what should be a
very profitable intermediate degree rally over the next 2-3 months. SMT premium newsletter. $10 one week trial.
In my last couple of articles I
mentioned that I was waiting for the S&P to form a swing low as the
first confirmation that an intermediate degree bottom had formed. That
swing is going to form on the open Monday morning.
Typically the stock market will rally
fairly aggressively out of one of these major intermediate bottoms,
often gaining 6%-8% in the first 15-20 days. At that point the market
will dip down into a half cycle low that will establish the trend line
for this particular daily cycle.
Since the dollar is now on the 21st
day of its daily cycle it is now overdue for a move down into a
short-term low. This should drive the first half of that 6%-8% move,
followed by a very short corrective move as the dollar bounces and then
rolls over quickly into a another leg down.
That cycle would be due to bottom around the first of the year, and
should drive the stock market generally higher until early January at
which time we should get a more significant correction, probably as
nervousness builds before the next earnings season.
I've diagrammed the general directions
and rough targets for what I think will unfold over the next month and a
half in the chart below.
However, the dollar shouldn't put in
the true yearly cycle low until sometime in mid February to early March
so there should be another leg down after the one bottoming in January.
The final leg down on the dollar index
into its yearly cycle low should drive the stock market back to at
least marginal new highs later this spring.
Back in June when the CRB made its
final three year cycle low I said at the time that this should
correspond with the three year cycle top in the dollar, which so far has
been the case.
We should continue to see the dollar
generally heading lower with intermittent bear market rallies until it
puts in a final three year cycle low in mid-2014. This should keep the
stock market generally moving higher at least until the point where
commodity inflation, especially energy, gets to the point it collapses
consumer spending. Once that occurs the stock market will start to
stagnate and refuse to rise even if the dollar continues to fall. If
Bernanke didn't learn his lesson in 2008 he will continue to print and
spike inflation even higher creating the conditions for the next
recession.
As has been the case in the 70s and
also during the last cyclical bull market in 2007, I think we will
probably see the stock market at least test the all-time highs, if not a
marginal break above them, before rolling over into what I expect will
be a very complex bear market bottoming sometime in 2015.
Today
should be the opportunity to get on board what is likely to be a
significant rally over the next 3 weeks and probably a move to new highs
over the next 2-3 months.
However I think the really big money will be made in mining stocks as gold should rally enough to make it's first test of the all time highs at $1900. It's not unreasonable to think miners will follow and test 640 during this time.
I'm just going to do a quick post
today. The relevant factors are that gold appears to have put in an
intermediate degree bottom last week. Miners are being dragged down at
the moment as the stock market makes its final move into an intermediate
bottom. This happens pretty much like clockwork every 20-25 weeks
(currently on week 23).
Invariably when stocks move down into
one of these major cycle bottoms the selling pressure infects
everything. It finally grabbed the miners today even though gold has
barely budged. Not to worry though, we've seen this happen dozens of
times in the past, and the miners always snap back violently once the
selling pressure in the stock market exhausts. More importantly than where things are
going tomorrow or the next day is where they are headed over the next
intermediate cycle. As I have diagrammed in the chart below the dollar
is due for a move down into a yearly cycle low around mid February or
early March. Roughly the same time as last year. This will drive the
next intermediate rally in gold (and stocks) for about the next 12-15
weeks.
I'll say it again. Buying anywhere
around these levels will deliver big gains over the next 3-4 months.
Probably largest in the miners, but certainly significant in virtually
all sectors.
This is that period of time that comes
only once or twice a year when the chartists get fleeced (the charts
always say the market is going lower at intermediate bottoms. This is why chartists always miss these major bottoms. You need different tools to spot these kind of buying opportunities.) and the smart money positions for the next leg up.
The choice is yours. Do you want to
sell at the bottom again, or will you be a buyer this time and make some
money? (I think big money.)
If you aren't already in, Monday or
Tuesday should represent an exceptional buying opportunity as gold moves
into its final intermediate cycle bottom.
Now that the 38% retracement has been
breached I would look for a final exhaustion move to test the 50% level
early next week as we move into the elections.
At that point sentiment should be
completely washed out and gold will be set up for an explosive move to
test the all-time highs by the end of the year or early January.
Miners should deliver even bigger
gains as I expect them to break out of the bull flag that's been forming
over the last 4 weeks and generate a 25-30% rally to test their all-time
highs.
We are moving into one of those rare
buying opportunities that only come around once or twice a year. This is
that point I warned about in my last post where one has to ignore
the media and nonsense about QE3 not working. It is going to work, and
it is going to work extremely well. I fully expect it to drive gold to
$4000 by mid 2014.
This is purely a profit taking event,
nothing more. These situations happen like clock work about every 20-25 weeks, as
you can see in the chart below. Gold is now very late in the timing band
for that major cycle bottom.
I'll have more in the weekend report and I think the odds are very high we get a final bottom by mid week.
